Are the Boston Red Sox the league’s most disappointing team through the first four weeks of the season? They are at least in the discussion, alongside a few other clubs that were also expected to compete. And they come to Baltimore this weekend in horrible form, fresh off a sweep at the hands of the rival New York Yankees and losers of five out of their last six.
An area where they have expectedly struggled is offense. The 92 runs they have scored are the second-fewest in the American League and the fifth-fewest in all of MLB. Other categories where they rank near the bottom of baseball: batting average (27th, .223), on-base percentage (26th, .305), slugging percentage (last, .331), and home runs (29th, 14). It’s been tough sledding.
Willson Contreras has done his part for the lineup. He leads the club with four home runs and a 126 wRC+. Wilyer Abreu (119 wRC+), Connor Wong (118 wRC+), and Masataka Yoshida (117 wRC+) have also been good to begin the year. Conversely, the club is hoping for a bit more out of Roman Anthony (97 wRC+), Ceddanne Rafaela (92 wRC+), Marcelo Mayer (71 wRC+), Jarren Duran (57 wRC+), and Trevor Story (35 wRC+), among others.
It’s not as if the pitching has been much better. Their 4.37 team ERA is 19th in MLB, but their 5.19 xERA is all the way down at 29th. There is plenty of blame to go around with the bullpen having a 4.97 xERA while the starters have a 5.37 xERA.
Aroldis Chapman is back as the Boston closer. His 1.17 ERA is good, but his 4.80 xERA is not. That is a product of, for him, a depressed strikeout rate (9.39 K/9). Our old friend Danny Coulombe has had a tough go of it with his 7.11 ERA. That is accompanied by some bad peripherals (5.83 FIP, 5.68 K/9, 4.26 BB/9).
We won’t see Sonny Gray this weekend due to a hamstring strain he suffered a few days ago. It doesn’t sound serious, but he won’t pitch at Camden Yards in this series. Other familiar names that will miss out include first baseman Triston Casas (ruptured patellar tendon), right-handed pitchers Kutter Crawford (flexor irritation) and Johan Oviedo (flexor strain), plus left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval (biceps discomfort).
RHP Brandon Young (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. RHP Brayan Bello (1-2, 6.75 ERA)
This was supposed to be Dean Kremer’s turn in the rotation, but news came down on Thursday that he would instead be headed to the IL with a quad strain. Brandon Young will be the one to get the call to replace him. The young righty has had himself a nice season so far. He’s got a 1.08 ERA over three Triple-A starts, and threw five shutout innings in his only big league appearance this season (April 6 against the White Sox). Between him, Kremer, and Cade Povich the Orioles have themselves an intriguing and ongoing competition for the fifth spot in the rotation.
Bello is dealing with a whole bunch of bad things happening at once for him. His fastball velocity is down over one mile per hour compared to 2025. At the same time, he is walking 5.79 batters per nine innings, which is only slightly lower than his 6.27 strikeouts per nine, which is the lowest rate of his career. Oh, and on top of that he is allowing 1.45 home runs per nine, one of the worst rates in MLB. It would be very fitting for him to turn it all around against the Orioles this weekend though.
LHP Trevor Rogers (2-2, 4.08 ERA) vs. LHP Garrett Crochet (2-3, 7.88 ERA)
Rogers has had a pair of tougher starts in his last two trips to the mound. He allowed four runs in 4.2 innings against the Diamondbacks on April 14th, and followed that up by allowing six runs over five innings to the Guardians on the 19th. Home runs hurt him in both outings. But nothing has changed about Rogers. He relies on limiting walks and inducing weak contact, which he has continued to do this season. A bounce-back against a struggling Red Sox lineup would be great to see.
Crochet is probably going to be fine, but it seems like he is in the midst of a mechanical change that has not had great results thus far. His arm angle is different, the velocity is down, and hitters are making much more hard contact. Hopefully the Orioles can be a part of the early-season onslaught against the lefty. Crochet allowed five runs over five innings against the Tigers in his last start, which was actually a marked improvement over the 11 runs (10 earned) that he coughed up against the Twins across just 1.2 innings back on April 13.
RHP Kyle Bradish (1-2, 3.96 ERA) vs. LHP Connelly Early (1-1, 2.88 ERA)
Over his last two starts, Bradish has looked much more like the ace-type that the Orioles were hoping to have in 2026. The box scores aren’t great either (for example, he allowed 10 hits to the Royals on April 20), but the eye test tells you that things are trending in the right direction. His pitch velocities are climbing and exit velocities are diving. If he could bring the walks down just a touch he should be in good shape.
A fifth-round pick in 2023, Early has just nine MLB starts under his belt, but he has had good results! The lefty is yet to allow more than three runs in a start this season. However, many of his peripheral stats are underwhelming. For one, his 5.70 xERA is much bigger than his actual 2.88 ERA. That is a reflection of his diminished strikeout numbers (8.64 K/9) and elevated walks (4.68 BB/9), which seems to be a theme in this Boston pitching staff.
How many games do you think the Orioles will win in this series? Let us know in the comments.