NFL Draft History Shows Steelers' Drew Allar Pick Is Lottery Ticket with Small Chance of Payout originally appeared on SportsNet Pittsburgh. Add SportsNet Pittsburgh as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
On the walk to and from the uptown Pittsburgh lot where I parked my car while attending the opening round of the 2026 NFL Draft, I took a shortcut from the Roberto Clemente Bridge toward the Acrisure Stadium grounds by walking through the outfield Riverwalk section at PNC Park.
The concession stands and restrooms were open. There was a festival atmosphere that included more than a thousand fans enjoying the scene. And each adult who entered had the opportunity to be handed a Pennsylvania Lottery scratch-off ticket by someone working the gate. I was given one on the way in, two on the way out.
My odds of winning maybe weren't great, but there was literally no cost. Wish we could say the same about the likelihood of success for Drew Allar, the Steelers' third-round pick.
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I mean, yes, it's a lottery-level proposition that his selection will turn out to be genuinely rewarding. The cost the Steelers paid, however, is far beyond free.
The selection of Allar is being justified on the basis of his obvious physical gifts. He is 6-5, 228 pounds. He has been timed at 4.86 seconds in the 40-yard dash. He is widely acknowledged to have a powerful throwing arm, although his accuracy numbers in his two most recent seasons at Penn State were relatively average.
This is what the Steelers are hoping they can address with high-end instruction from head coach Mike McCarthy, quarterbacks coach Tom Arth, offensive coordinator Brian Angelichio and senior offensive assistant Frank Cignetti Jr.
However, the history of mid-round quarterback selections in the NFL Draft tell us, as Vince Lombardi would say, "Hope is not a strategy."
In the first 25 drafts of this century, the only quarterback selected in the third or fourth round who has become an unquestioned, big-game-winning star is Russell Wilson, chosen by the Seahawks with the 75th pick in 2012. He has been selected for 10 Pro Bowls, appeared in two Super Bowls and won a single Lombardi Trophy.
He owns half of all playoff victories earned by quarterbacks in this category. Only three of those players have won multiple playoff games as a starting QB. Only two — Wilson and Nick Foles — own postseason records above the .500 mark.
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The small group of mid-round quarterback success stories from 2000 and beyond stops with Cowboys veteran Dak Prescott and journeyman Kirk Cousins. As Tony Kornheiser would say, "That's it; that's the list."
A fourth-round pick in 2016 — chosen after Cody Kessler and Connor Cook — Prescott has reached four Pro Bowls and passed for 35,989 yards (32nd in league history) and 243 touchdowns (33rd). But he lost five of the seven playoff games in which he appeared.
Chosen in the fourth round in 2012, Cousins also has made four Pro Bowls and stands 15th in TD passes at 298 and 19th in passing yards with 44,700. But he was the winner in only one of his four playoff starts.
A large number of those who follow the Steelers or cover them complained from 2017 until Mike Tomlin chose to resign in January about the team's playoff victory drought. If both reaching the playoffs and succeeding once there are the targets, a third-round QB appears extremely unlikely to lead in that direction.
The success rate of mid-round quarterbacks chosen since 2000 is, frankly, appalling:
Only 27 percent of quarterbacks chosen in the third or fourth round started double-digit games in at least one season.
Only 16 percent earned the chance to start a second full season.
Only five percent own career records of more than three games over .500.