As the 2026 NBA playoffs heat up and the conference finals draw near, savvy bettors know that finding solid value in the futures market is getting tougher by the day. But don't count out the longshots just yet—there's one intriguing name in the Finals MVP race that could make for a thrilling ride.

Two weeks ago, we tipped readers to grab the last reasonable price on the Oklahoma City Thunder to repeat as NBA champions, when they were sitting at -115 to -130. That call is looking sharp: after sweeping the Phoenix Suns in the first round, the Thunder now hold a commanding 3-0 lead over the Los Angeles Lakers heading into Game 4. OKC's title odds have since steepened to around -170, and they're -280 to win the Western Conference. At those prices, it's time to look for other ways to back the defending champs.

All signs point to a Thunder-Knicks showdown in the NBA Finals. New York swept the Philadelphia 76ers in the conference semifinals and is priced at -165 to win the East. The Knicks sit at +525 to take the title, with the San Antonio Spurs (+400) and Detroit Pistons (+2000) still in the mix.

In the Finals MVP race, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the heavy favorite at around -170—essentially the same price as the Thunder to win it all. It's a familiar dynamic, much like the Super Bowl where the quarterback of the favored team carries odds mirroring his squad's moneyline. SGA claimed Finals MVP last season and is poised to win his second straight regular-season MVP when results are announced next week. Through the playoffs, he's averaging 28.3 points, 7.0 assists, and 3.3 rebounds on 51.6% shooting. If he keeps that up during another title run, he'll likely take home the hardware again.

But for those looking for a high-upside play with serious equity, consider Chet Holmgren. The versatile 7-footer has been a cornerstone of OKC's success, and his Finals MVP odds have already moved from +5500 to +3500 in just days. That kind of movement suggests the smart money is starting to take notice—and so should you.