The Toronto Maple Leafs just won the NHL Draft lottery—but before you start celebrating, let’s pump the brakes on what this means for Auston Matthews.

On the surface, landing the No. 1 overall pick seems like a no-brainer way to convince the superstar captain to stay put. But according to NHL insider Elliotte Friedman, the lottery win doesn’t change the Matthews situation at all.

In the latest episode of his 32 Thoughts podcast, Friedman explained that Matthews’ decision-making process remains exactly the same. The plan? Sit down with the front office, hear their vision, and—most importantly—decide if he believes the new leadership can actually execute it.

Matthews has two years left on his current contract, and he’s in the prime of his career. He isn’t going to stick around just to wait for a teenage draft pick to develop. Even if that pick turns out to be a generational talent like Gavin McKenna, it’s not a quick fix.

“This player alone is not going to completely change the fortunes of the franchise, although it will help,” Friedman said.

The real question isn’t about the draft. It’s about whether Matthews trusts Toronto’s new management to build a winner now. If they can prove they have a solid plan—and the ability to pull it off—the superstar might stay. If not, a shiny new No. 1 pick won’t be enough to keep him in blue and white.

For Maple Leafs fans, this lottery win is exciting—but it’s not the Matthews insurance policy you might think it is. The captain’s future is still very much up in the air.