The San Francisco 49ers have been making headlines—and raising eyebrows—following the 2026 NFL Draft. Their picks, which often strayed from the national consensus board, have sparked debate among fans and analysts alike. But as the dust settles, the question remains: Is this deviation a problem, or just a hallmark of a confident front office?

General Manager John Lynch and Head Coach Kyle Shanahan are standing firm. They’ve emphasized that the team relies on its own internal consensus board, not the one pundits use. Given the 49ers’ recent success, it’s worth exploring whether this approach has worked—or backfired—in the past.

Let’s rewind to the 2020 NFL Draft. That year, San Francisco surprised many by selecting defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw early to fill the void left by DeForest Buckner. Kinlaw was a talented prospect but carried significant injury concerns. Unfortunately, he never lived up to expectations and didn’t earn a second contract with the team.

Still, the 2020 class wasn’t a total loss. The 49ers hit big on wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (via a trade-up in 2021’s draft), plus found gems in fifth-round tackle Colton McKivitz, seventh-round wideout Jauan Jennings, and sixth-round tight end Charlie Woerner. Notably, most of these picks aligned closely with the national consensus—Kinlaw was a top-20 prospect, and Aiyuk was selected in his expected range.

The 2021 draft, however, tells a different story. The biggest miss was quarterback Trey Lance, but the class also featured several “reaches” by consensus standards. Offensive lineman Aaron Banks was projected as a late third-round pick, but the 49ers traded back and snagged him at No. 48. Running back Trey Sermon and cornerback Ambry Thomas were also considered reaches, with the team trading up for Sermon at No. 88 and taking Thomas at No. 102.

So, what’s the takeaway? For a team like the 49ers, which has built a winning culture through bold moves, deviating from the consensus isn’t inherently a flaw. It’s a calculated risk—one that has paid off with some standout players, even if others didn’t pan out. As Lynch and Shanahan continue to trust their board, the real test will be whether this year’s class can follow in the footsteps of hits like Aiyuk and Jennings, rather than the misses of Kinlaw and Lance.