Late-round draft picks are often celebrated as diamond-in-the-rough finds, but the reality is far more grounded. While every fan dreams of unearthing the next Maxx Crosby, the odds are stacked against late-round selections making an immediate or even long-term impact.
A revealing post from NFL Researcher on X highlights just how challenging it is to find consistent starters in rounds four through seven. The data, which focuses on players drafted in those final four rounds over the past five seasons who started at least 10 games in 2025, paints a telling picture. Here’s the positional breakdown:
🔸 Cornerback – 12
🔸 Tight End – 11
🔸 Linebacker – 11
🔸 Offensive Tackle – 8
🔸 Offensive Guard – 8
🔸 Safety – 8
🔸 Wide Receiver – 7
🔸 Running Back – 6
🔸 Defensive Tackle – 5
🔸 Center – 4
🔸 Defensive End – 2
🔸 Quarterback – 0 (Brock Purdy, notably, started 9 games)
These numbers underscore a simple truth: turning late-round picks into reliable starters is no easy feat. For every success story, there are dozens who never find their footing in the league.
As we look ahead to the Raiders' 2025 third-day picks, the question becomes: can they beat the odds? The development of these players will be crucial, especially with key positions like quarterback in the spotlight. NFL.com recently explored whether No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza will be ready to start Week 1 or if the team will lean on veteran Kirk Cousins to steady the offense.
In a related note, Pro Football Network’s 2021 redraft has the Raiders picking at No. 17—a reminder of how even early-round selections can shape a franchise's future. For now, all eyes are on how these late-round gambles pan out, and whether any can rise above the statistical norm.