The Vancouver Canucks are on the brink of a franchise-defining moment. Tuesday night’s NHL Draft lottery could hand them the No. 1 overall pick—and the chance to select generational talent Gavin McKenna.

As the team with the league’s worst record in 2025-26, the Canucks enter the lottery with the best odds of landing the top spot. But in the NHL’s draft lottery system, nothing is guaranteed. Here’s a breakdown of what’s at stake and the numbers Vancouver fans should be watching.

The Odds: A Quarter of a Dream
The Canucks have a 25.5% chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick. That’s nearly double the odds of the next-closest teams—Chicago (13.5%) and the New York Rangers (11.5%). While a quarter might not sound overwhelming, it’s the highest probability of any team in the lottery.

Safety Net: No Worse Than Third
Even if the lottery doesn’t go Vancouver’s way, they can’t fall lower than the No. 3 pick. Here’s the full probability breakdown: - No. 1 pick: 25.5% - No. 2 pick: 18.8% - No. 3 pick: 55.7%

The Bigger Picture
The lottery system is designed to prevent tanking, which is why 11 teams have a shot at the top pick. That’s also why Vancouver’s most likely outcome—at 55.7%—is picking third. But the Canucks are the clear favorites to land McKenna, a player who could reshape their future for years to come.

For a team that endured a painful season, Tuesday night offers a chance at redemption. Whether it’s McKenna or another star prospect, the Canucks are poised to add a cornerstone piece to their rebuild. All eyes are on the lottery—and Vancouver fans are holding their breath.