The Indiana Pacers are heading into Sunday's NBA Draft lottery with a story that feels straight out of a sports drama—and according to Bill Simmons, they've got the universe on their side. After two stellar seasons that saw them reach the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024 and a thrilling Game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2025, the 2025-26 campaign was a brutal letdown. Injuries, led by Tyrese Haliburton's Achilles tear in that decisive Finals game, derailed everything, leaving the Pacers with a 19-63 record. But now, with the lottery on May 10, there's a sense of redemption in the air.

Simmons, the Ringer founder, and Nick Wright of "First Things First" recently broke down the lottery odds on a podcast, and they agreed the Pacers are "swimming in karma points." The team has a 52.1% chance of landing a top-four pick—and a 14% shot at the No. 1 overall selection—but there's a catch: if the pick falls between fifth and ninth, it goes to the Los Angeles Clippers as part of the trade for Ivica Zubac. It's a high-stakes coin flip, but Simmons sees a bright future if the odds tilt Indiana's way. "They flip the coin, and if it comes up heads, they get a top-four pick, they get Zubac, and Haliburton comes back," he said. "They're probably going to be the No. 2 favorite in the East."

Wright echoed that optimism, noting that the Pacers didn't tear down their roster—they just took a "gap year" after a historic playoff run. "We recalibrate it. We didn't tear it down. We took a gap year," Wright said. "They're well-run. They have a plan." Simmons added that the team's gamble on Haliburton's health was a calculated risk that simply didn't pay off last season, but now the pieces are aligning for a quick bounce-back.

For Pacers fans, this lottery represents more than just a draft pick—it's a chance to flip the script after a year of misfortune. With Haliburton expected to return and the potential for a top-four talent to join the mix, Indiana could be a sleeper contender in the East again. T.J. McConnell will represent the team at the lottery on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. Whether it's karma or just good planning, the Pacers are poised to make some noise.