The 2026 NBA Playoffs have already delivered some stunning upsets, and as the conference semifinals tip off, the betting landscape has shifted dramatically. The reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder remain the favorites to repeat, with odds at -155 on FanDuel, but the SportsLine Projection Model—which simulates every game 10,000 times and boasts a 26-9 record (74%) on top-rated spread picks this season—sees even greater value elsewhere.
The Thunder have a 49.5% chance to win the title, according to the model, but at those short odds, the real opportunities lie with other teams. One squad, in particular, has caught the model's eye: the New York Knicks. After a dominant first-round series against the Hawks, closing it out 4-2 with three consecutive wins by margins of 16, 29, and a staggering 51 points, the Knicks are playing with a newfound confidence. Two of those decisive victories came on the road in Atlanta, proving this team can win anywhere.
Jalen Brunson has been the engine of this resurgence, but what's exciting for Knicks fans is that he didn't have to carry the entire load. Over the final three games of the series, Brunson averaged 25.0 points on 52.8% shooting—excellent numbers, but not the superhuman output he's known for in the postseason. For context, Brunson entered this year's playoffs averaging 29.9 points per game in his playoff career, the fifth-highest mark in NBA history (minimum 40 games), trailing only Michael Jordan, Luka Doncic, Allen Iverson, and LeBron James. Now, with the emergence of a deeper supporting cast, he can play the role of Robin while someone else steps up as Batman.
The Knicks' path through the Eastern Conference semifinals pits them against the 76ers, a team they split the regular-season series with 2-2. However, New York won the last two meetings, including a 138-89 demolition in Philadelphia. That kind of momentum, combined with the model's bullish projections, makes the Knicks (+900 to win the NBA Finals) a compelling value play. With the Celtics, Nuggets, and Rockets already eliminated, the Eastern Conference is wide open—and the Knicks are proving they're ready to seize the moment.