Early in the 2026 Cup Series season, Joey Logano carried a chip on his shoulder. "All of the championships are special, but just to shut the haters up would be great," he said, and for a while, his performances backed up that confidence. But as the season has unfolded, the narrative has shifted dramatically. What started as a promising campaign now faces a looming question mark over Logano's title hopes.

Kevin Harvick, never one to mince words, delivered a sobering assessment on his podcast. "I think that the 22 is probably in the worst spot of the bunch, with the expectations to race for a championship, and they're on the outside of the Chase looking in." The criticism centers on a familiar foe for Logano: consistency.

Logano's season began with promise—a top-three finish at Daytona, matched at Martinsville. But since Kansas, the wheels have fallen off. He hasn't finished inside the top 30 in any race since. With the championship format shifting away from the elimination-style playoffs that have historically favored his late-season surges, the margin for error has shrunk dramatically.

"The reality of the situation is they're probably not going to contend for the championship," Harvick continued. "They might make the Chase, and they might turn their season around, but I don't see them contending for the championship."

This isn't entirely new territory for the #22 team. Logano has long been a slow starter, finding his rhythm only after the first 10 rounds. Even during his 2024 championship run, he didn't win a race until round 19 at Nashville. But that championship came under the old elimination-style format—a system that no longer exists. This year's Chase format demands consistent excellence from start to finish, a challenge that has tripped up even the most talented drivers.

Look at the standings: Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin have been models of consistency, leading the table with steady performances week after week. Meanwhile, Logano sits 18th—a precarious position for anyone with championship aspirations. Yet, despite the mounting evidence, Logano remains defiant. "It's not far," he insists, clinging to the belief that a turnaround is just around the corner. Whether that belief is optimism or denial will be decided on the track in the weeks ahead.