The baseball world was shaken this week when Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal—the first back-to-back American League Cy Young winner in decades—was sidelined for elbow surgery to remove loose bodies. While no official return timeline has been announced, similar procedures typically cost pitchers two to three months, effectively taking the two-time winner out of the 2026 Cy Young conversation. That leaves the door wide open for a new name to claim the coveted award.
According to current odds from Caesars Sportsbook, the AL Cy Young race is already heating up with a mix of familiar faces and surprising newcomers. Let's break down the top five contenders shaping up one month into the season.
1. Will Schlittler (Yankees) — Odds: Favorite
It's hard to ignore the "Yankees tax" here. As the most visible team in the American League, Yankees players often attract heavy betting action, which can inflate odds. But Schlittler is backing up the hype with a stellar start: 4-1 record, 1.51 ERA, and an impressive 49 strikeouts against just six walks in 41.2 innings. The big question is workload. After throwing 149.2 innings combined between the minors and majors last season (plus 14.1 more in the playoffs), the Yankees may cap him around 170 innings. Historically, it's tough to win a Cy Young with fewer than that.
2. Max Fried (Yankees) — Odds: Strong Contender
Fried won't face the same innings limit. A former Cy Young runner-up, he brings veteran savvy and durability to the Bronx. This could be his best opportunity yet to finally secure that elusive first Cy Young award.
3. George Soriano (Angels) — Odds: Rising Star
If the season ended today, Soriano would be your winner. Despite pitching for a struggling Angels team, he's 5-1 with a microscopic 0.84 ERA and 2.6 WAR. The question is sustainability—can he keep channeling his inner Pedro Martinez all season long?
4. Dylan Cease (Padres) — Odds: Veteran Dark Horse
Cease has finished second and fourth in Cy Young voting before, but inconsistency and walk issues have plagued him. If he can tighten up his command, he has the stuff to make a serious run.
5. Jacob deGrom (Rangers) — Odds: +1300 (Intriguing Value)
What a story this would be. The two-time Cy Young winner, now 38, returned from Tommy John surgery last season and looks sharp in 2026: 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 40 strikeouts in 31.1 innings. He threw over 170 innings last year, suggesting he could reach 190 this season. At +1300, deGrom feels like a savvy bet for those looking for value.
With Skubal out, the AL Cy Young race is anyone's game—and this early-season drama is already shaping up to be one of the most compelling storylines of 2026.