The Miami Dolphins have made no secret of their intentions for the 2026 season: they're tanking. After releasing key veterans like Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb, and Tua Tagovailoa, and trading away Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins are embracing a full rebuild. With over $100 million in dead cap hits over the next two seasons, Miami fields a depleted roster and faces the NFL's second-hardest schedule.

It might seem like a lock that the Dolphins will land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. But ESPN's Dan Graziano is urging caution, pointing to one major rival in the race to the bottom: the Arizona Cardinals.

"I'm not saying it's impossible. I've been saying they're going to have competition," Graziano writes. "The Cardinals, who also cleaned house on the coaching staff and don't feature an obvious solution at quarterback, have the third-toughest strength of schedule..."

Both teams are in similar situations. The Dolphins have the second-toughest schedule, while the Cardinals have the third-toughest. Both rosters are weak, and both teams have first-year head coaches—Jeff Hafley in Miami and Mike LaFleur in Arizona. So what gives the Cardinals an edge in the race for the No. 1 pick? It comes down to their divisional opponents.

Arizona faces the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, and San Francisco 49ers—three teams that are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Cardinals are expected to be heavy underdogs in all six of those games. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots as Super Bowl contenders they must face twice, but the real wildcard is the New York Jets. It wouldn't be a surprise if Miami manages to beat the Jets in 2026.

And in the race for the top pick, just one win can make all the difference.