Manchester United have been on a tear since Michael Carrick took over as caretaker boss in January, racking up more Premier League points than any other team in that period. On the surface, it looks like a no-brainer to hand him the job permanently—after all, only Arsenal boast a better goal difference, and no side has scored more goals. But for fans and pundits alike, the numbers tell a more complicated story.

Carrick's United have been running hot, and that's both a blessing and a potential curse. While the attack is firing on all cylinders—converting chances at the best rate in the league—the underlying stats suggest this pace is unsustainable. Eight teams have actually created better chances based on expected goals (xG), but United's clinical finishing has seen them score seven more goals than the average team would from the same opportunities. That's the biggest overperformance in the league, and history suggests such efficiency rarely lasts.

Looking at both attack and defense, only Nottingham Forest—enjoying their own "new manager bounce" under Vitor Pereira—have outperformed their xG numbers more than United since Carrick took charge. Three of the six most clinical finishers in the Premier League over that span play for Carrick, including Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko, and Casemiro. While that speaks to Carrick's ability to get his players firing, the question looms: can they keep this up forever?

Comparing United's stats under Carrick to those under previous boss Ruben Amorim earlier this season reveals the key shift: better efficiency in both boxes. Whether it's Carrick's man-management or tactical tweaks, the improvement is real. But for a club looking to build long-term success, the warning signs are there. A hot streak can win you games, but a sustainable system wins you titles.