Manchester United's interim boss Michael Carrick has been turning heads since taking the reins in January, guiding his team to more Premier League points than any other club during his tenure. On paper, it looks like a no-brainer to hand him the job permanently—but the numbers tell a more complicated story.
Sure, the Red Devils have been flying high. Only Arsenal boast a better goal difference, and no team has found the net more often. Carrick, a club legend from his playing days, seems to have unlocked something special in this squad, especially in attack. But here's the catch: that blistering form might not be sustainable.
When you dig into the stats, a worrying trend emerges. Despite their impressive point tally, eight Premier League teams have actually created better chances than United based on expected goals (xG). The difference? Carrick's men have been ruthlessly efficient, boasting the league's best shot conversion rate. They've scored seven more goals than historical xG models would predict—more than any other side. Only Nottingham Forest, enjoying their own new-manager bounce under Vitor Pereira, have overperformed their xG numbers by a wider margin.
This hot streak extends to individual players. Three of the six most clinical finishers in the league since Carrick took charge wear United red. Matheus Cunha has been nearly as lethal as Forest's Morgan Gibbs-White, while Benjamin Sesko and Casemiro have also been enjoying a purple patch. But can we really expect these players to stay at the peak of their finishing powers forever? History says no.
Comparing United's stats under Carrick to those under former boss Ruben Amorim earlier this season reveals the secret to their turnaround: improved efficiency in both boxes. Carrick's man-management seems to have sparked a fire in his attackers and goalkeeper Senne Lammens alike. But while the results are undeniable right now, the underlying numbers suggest that when that shooting luck inevitably cools, the real test of Carrick's managerial mettle will begin.