This year’s Kentucky Derby field does not appear to have a true standout. But it could have a star.
If that sounds illogical, trainer Chad Brown, who will start Emerging Market in a bid to win his first Derby, can explain.
“There's clearly a couple horses that are deserving favorites in the race, but there’s by no means an American Pharoah in here, at least up to this point going into the race,” Brown said, referencing the 2015 Triple Crown champion. “Now, you know, whoever wins the race and goes on, maybe one emerges and turns into one of the best 3-year-olds in the last few years.”
That’s what happened last year, when Sovereignty, the third betting choice in the race, progressed from a Derby win to victories in the Belmont and Travers and was voted Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year.
Read more: Kentucky Derby draw: Favorite Renegade draws dreaded rail position
This year’s field is so deep, Brown said, that an argument could be made “for maybe half the horses in the field, if they ran their very, very best race and had a good trip, could win this race.”
Brad Cox, who trains three of those horses, including Florida Derby winner Commandment and Blue Grass champion Further Ado, as well as the interesting long shot Fulleffort, termed the field “very competitive.”
Added Cox: “I think it's a really good group of horses. I think there's a lot of talent, obviously, you know, coming from different regions whether it's California, Florida. Louisiana, New York. I do feel like the horses in Florida were definitely the strongest region this year.”
The top five choices on the official morning line all trained in Florida, though some, including Further Ado, made their final starts elsewhere. But wherever the horses are coming from, including two from Japan and one from the United Arab Emirates, choosing a winner will be a challenge. At this point, it’s not even certain who will wind up favored. That’s among the story lines worth watching in the days leading up to Saturday’s race.
The morning line favorite at 4-1 is Renegade, trained by Todd Pletcher, who has started more horses (65) in the Derby than anyone and has two victories, with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017. Renegade was impressive in winning his last two starts, the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay and the Arkansas Derby.
But while deserving of top billing, Renegade is hardly a standout, especially after he drew the No. 1 post position, considered a disadvantage. Either of the 6-1 co-second choices, Commandment or Further Ado, could wind up being favored at post time.
As for whether it matters, history offers conflicting results. From 1980 to 1999, no favorite won the Derby. From 2000 to 2018, there were 10 winners, including six straight from 2013 to 2018. But no favorite has won in the last seven years.
It would be a surprise. When Journalism and Baeza finished second and third, respectively, last year, it stretched California’s drought to five years, which doesn’t sound like much except in comparison to the previous nine years, when six horses from the state captured the Derby.
Bob Baffert trained three of those winners — American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018), who both went on to capture the Triple Crown, as well as Authentic (2020). Doug O’Neill had I’ll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist (2016) and Art Sherman won with California Chrome (2014).
There are five chances this year, though all five are at least 15-1 on the morning line. The leading contender is Santa Anita Derby winner So Happy, who is trainer Mark Glatt’s first Kentucky Derby starter. He will be a sentimental choice for many after Glatt’s wife of 25 years, Dena, died in February.
Baffert has Potente, who beat So Happy in the San Felipe before finishing second in the Santa Anita Derby, and Litmus Test, who has been a non-factor in two starts since winning last fall’s Los Alamitos Futurity. O’Neill will start Pavlovian, who was a close second in the Louisiana Derby, and Jeff Mullins is back with his first Derby starter in 21 years, the long shot Intrepido, a disappointing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby.
Chief Wallabee didn’t race as a 2-year-old, one of four such horses in the Derby along with The Puma, Emerging Market and Potente. It used to be those horses were automatic throwouts in the Derby, but Justify ended a drought of more than 135 years when he won, and Mage followed with a victory in 2023.
All four horses who didn’t debut until they were 3 have a legitimate chance Saturday, but the one getting the most buzz in Louisville has been the one who hasn’t won a stakes race. In just his second start, the Fountain of Youth, Chief Wallabee lost by a neck to Commandment, and a month later, in the Florida Derby, the margin was a half-length to the same horse (with The Puma in between them).
The thinking, though, is Chief Wallabee gained experience in those races and has room for improvement. Plus, he is trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado, who combined to win last year with Sovereignty. (Baffert was the last trainer to win the Derby back-to-back, in 1997-98; Victor Espinoza was the last jockey, in 2014-15.)
Hoping to improve Chief Wallabee’s focus, Mott will have the colt race in blinkers for the first time in the Derby. The son of Constitution has trained well while wearing them. He might be overbet because of the buzz, but there’s no doubt he’s dangerous.