The NBA Draft Lottery is set for Sunday, and for the 14 teams that missed the playoffs, this is the night where dreams of a franchise-changing superstar begin. Since the lottery's introduction in 1985—when the New York Knicks famously landed Patrick Ewing through the original envelope-drawing system—the process has evolved. The ping-pong ball system debuted in 1994, and the odds have been flattened over the years to create more parity. This year, one team will walk away with the No. 1 overall pick, while three others will secure top-four selections. Here's a look at who has the best shot at glory.
At the top, the Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, and Brooklyn Nets share the highest odds, each with a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 52.1% shot at landing in the top four. These three teams endured tough seasons—the Wizards at 17–65, the Pacers at 19–63, and the Nets at 20–62—but their patience could pay off handsomely on lottery night.
Just behind them, the Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings are tied with identical 22–60 records, giving each an 11.5% chance at the top pick and a 45.1% chance at a top-four selection. The Memphis Grizzlies, at 25–57, hold a 9% chance at No. 1 and a 37.2% shot at the top four, keeping them firmly in the mix.
The middle of the lottery pack features some intriguing scenarios. The Atlanta Hawks have two picks in play—one via the New Orleans Pelicans (26–56) and one via the Milwaukee Bucks (32–50)—and will receive the higher of the two based on lottery results. Their best pick gives them a 6.8% chance at No. 1 and a 29.3% shot at the top four. The Dallas Mavericks, also at 26–56, have similar odds at 6.8% for the top pick and 28.9% for the top four. The Chicago Bulls, with a 31–51 record, have a 4.5% chance at No. 1 and a 20.2% chance at the top four.
As the odds shrink, the stakes remain high. The Golden State Warriors (37–45) have a 2% chance at the top pick and a 9.4% chance at the top four. The Oklahoma City Thunder, holding the Los Angeles Clippers' pick (42–40), have a 1.5% chance at No. 1 and a 7.2% chance at the top four. The Miami Heat (43–39) also have a 1% chance at the top pick and a 7.2% shot at the top four. Finally, the Charlotte Hornets, at 44–48, have the longest odds—just 0.5% for the No. 1 pick and a 2.4% chance at cracking the top four.
Whether you're a fan of a team in the hunt or just love the drama of draft season, Sunday's lottery is a reminder that even the toughest seasons can lead to brighter days. Who will be the lucky franchise? We'll find out soon enough.