As the 2026 college football season approaches, preseason analytics are setting the tone, and for Michigan State fans, the outlook from one major metric is a sobering one. ESPN's Bill Connelly has released his preseason SP+ rankings, a highly-regarded predictive model that adjusts for tempo and opponent to measure team efficiency, and the Spartans find themselves in a challenging position.

Michigan State lands at No. 67 nationally in the initial SP+ ratings, which places them 17th out of 18 teams in the expanded Big Ten conference. This ranking positions them among the lowest-rated teams from the Power Four conferences, sitting just ahead of Purdue (No. 82 nationally) within the league.

This analytical projection follows a difficult period for the Spartan program. The team is coming off its fourth consecutive losing season, with a 4-8 overall record (1-8 in Big Ten play) in 2025. The SP+ model, designed to forecast future performance based on sustainable factors like efficiency and explosiveness, clearly reflects the recent on-field struggles that the new coaching staff must overcome.

For the Spartan faithful, this preseason ranking underscores the scale of the rebuild in East Lansing. It sets a clear baseline for improvement as the team looks to climb the rankings and restore its competitive stature in one of the nation's toughest conferences.