The Green Bay Packers are staring down a challenging road in 2026—at least on paper. Based on win percentages from the 2025 regular season, the Packers rank near the top of the NFL in strength of schedule. Only two teams, the Chicago Bears (.550) and Miami Dolphins (.542), face a tougher projected path than Green Bay's .538 mark.
Why such a daunting slate? A big part of the answer lies in the NFC North's dominance last season. No team in the division finished worse than 9-8, making every divisional matchup a battle. On top of that, the Packers are set to face four teams that won 12 or more games in 2025: the Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, and Houston Texans. That's a gauntlet by any measure.
But is raw win percentage the best way to gauge difficulty? Warren Sharp of SharpFootballAnalysis.com thinks there's a smarter approach. Instead of relying solely on past records, he uses Vegas win totals for the upcoming season to forecast strength of schedule. The logic is straightforward: sportsbooks incorporate the latest roster moves, coaching changes, and offseason developments—giving a more dynamic and current picture than last year's standings.
By that measure, the Packers' schedule looks far less intimidating. Sharp's analysis ranks Green Bay 17th in schedule difficulty—right in the middle of the pack. While Vegas odds aren't infallible, this method suggests the Packers' 2026 campaign might not be as grueling as a glance at 2025 records would indicate.
Some other notable takeaways: The Detroit Lions, benefiting from a fourth-place schedule, have the NFL's easiest slate and are positioned as a major rebound candidate. On the flip side, the Chicago Bears top the traditional strength-of-schedule rankings but land sixth in Sharp's analysis, making them a prime regression candidate. Among NFC contenders, the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers have favorable schedules, while the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys face tougher roads alongside the Bears.
The full 17-game schedule for all 32 teams drops Thursday night. For Packers fans, the real question may be whether their team's path is as steep as it seems—or if the numbers are playing tricks.