The Philadelphia Phillies are eager to get back their ace, Zack Wheeler. While it could be argued that Wheeler is no longer their ace, he remains a premier pitcher, and the team needs him back. Why? The Phillies enter Thursday night on a seven-game losing streak. According to manager Rob Thompson, Wheeler is "basically at the end of spring training." The hope is that Wheeler can return to fantasy baseball excellence for those who have invested in him.
The unfortunate news comes from the Phillies manager. He states Wheeler lacks his fastball velocity from states old, perhaps expecting us to see a dip from his 96 MPH average to the 93-95 MPH range. Per Thompson, "I'm expecting on a normal day, weather-wise, that he's gonna have his command." Wheeler will make his season debut this upcoming Saturday, April 24, against the Braves in Atlanta.
Wheeler is absolutely a pitcher that must be owned in fantasy baseball. In his last two seasons, Wheeler fielded a sub-2.80 ERA. While he anticipates a downturn from his normal self, he is still who he is- a former Cy Young contender.
In preseason ADP, Wheeler was drafted in a solid position as the SP42. He remains volatile in Rest-of-Season Rankings, but generally at or above that ADP ranking. The case is unique and perhaps risky, which makes him a player worth asking - what is his ceiling?
Wheeler is expected to be a step below his form over the past few years. We explain the medical details of his procedure below, so be sure to scroll down.
As for Wheeler's ceiling, it probably lies at a low-3.00 ERA, but with a risk of being abysmal over 4.50 ERA. If Wheeler cannot maintain his control and his velocity drops by more than 1-2 MPH, that will be a massive problem. Over the years, we have seen pitchers fall flat post-surgery. The most recent case is that of Sean Manaea with the Mets, who has lost tremendous velocity and entered the team's bullpen.
Zack Wheeler ultimately is a player that is must-own, but can be started or sat on a week-by-week basis. The key will be to see his first 2-3 starts and go from there. Wheeler is widely owned in about 93% of fantasy baseball leagues. If available, grab him. If mulling a trade, do not buy him. If someone comes calling, go ahead and negotiate a sale at the right price, given that you're a top-50 pitcher.
Wheeler has rehabbed back and expects no immediate risk in his return. Rob Thompson is ready for Wheeler's return, and by doing so on the mound, not in the bullpen, it signals confidence in Wheeler.
The surgery done on Wheeler was a thoracic outlet decompression surgery. In layman's terms, Wheeler had more space created between his collarbone and ribs. The goal is to make Wheeler's arm range easier and less tight. Basically, Wheeler will get more blood flow and thus, get better at baseball (ideally).
The injury can flare up again, but much remains unknown on the reporting end. Wheeler makes his return this Saturday, and all eyes will be on his arm and how he shall look visually, rather than on statistics.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/onsi/fantasy as What Zack Wheeler's Return Means for Fantasy Baseball Managers.