As the college football offseason heats up, all eyes are on USC and their quest to finally break through to the College Football Playoff. While May is still months away from kickoff, the early consensus is that the Trojans are teetering on the edge of the 12-team field—some analysts have them barely in, while others, like CBS Sports, have them just outside looking in.

In their post-spring rankings, CBS slots USC at No. 12, which might sound promising at first glance. But here's the catch: with the Group of Five guaranteed one spot, the Trojans would need to climb to No. 11 or higher to snag a coveted at-large bid. Of course, winning the Big Ten would punch their ticket automatically, but realistically, USC isn't viewed as the conference's top dog. The most plausible path to the playoff? A 10-2 regular season, combined with the SEC not gobbling up six of the available spots.

CBS notes the intrigue surrounding Lincoln Riley heading into Year 5 at USC—still without a single CFP appearance. "Dare we say that ends this fall?" they ask, highlighting a spring marked by injuries and recoveries among projected starters, but also meaningful reps for backups. The depth is building after several strong recruiting classes, and quarterback Jayden Maiava turned heads last season with an under-the-radar performance that deserves more attention.

Make no mistake: making the playoff is the clear, undeniable goal for the Trojans in 2026. Failure to do so could put Riley on the hot seat by 2027, though the quality of the season—whether it's a respectable 9-3 or a disappointing 7-5—will likely be the ultimate deciding factor in his job security. For USC fans, every game this fall will feel like a playoff game in itself.