The North Carolina Tar Heels softball team is heading into the ACC Tournament with a lot on the line. After finishing the regular season with a solid 31-18 record on April 26th, the Tar Heels now face a critical stretch in Charlottesville, Virginia, starting Wednesday against Clemson. But here’s the catch: despite that overall winning mark, UNC struggled mightily in conference play, going just 9-15. That leaves them as the #10 seed in the 12-team tournament—and puts them squarely on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament.

Being the #10 seed means the Tar Heels will need to win four games in four days to capture the ACC title. That’s a tall order, especially considering the potential path. If they face the highest seeds possible in each round, they’d have to take down nationally ranked Duke, Virginia Tech, and Florida State in succession. During the regular season, UNC went a combined 1-8 against those three teams. Running that gauntlet back-to-back-to-back would be a monumental challenge.

But the stakes are even higher. According to On3’s Softball America, the Tar Heels were listed among the “first four out” in their latest bracketology projections. The main reason? A lack of success against ranked opponents. UNC went just 2-16 against teams that were ranked at the time of those games. One of those wins came against Duke, and the other against Virginia—though neither is as highly ranked now as they were then. Beyond that, they have six wins against projected tournament teams, but all of those are from one-bid leagues, which don’t carry as much weight with the selection committee.

The good news is that the ACC is one of the top conferences in the country, so every game in this tournament offers a chance to boost their NCAA résumé. However, opportunities only matter if you seize them, and so far this season, the Tar Heels haven’t been able to do that consistently against elite competition.

Whether or not UNC can string together enough wins to make the NCAA Tournament, this week in Charlottesville is a defining moment. For fans, it’s a chance to see if this team can rise to the occasion when it matters most. And for the players, every at-bat and every pitch is an opportunity to prove they belong on the biggest stage.