The PWHL's final playoff spot will likely come down to a pair of head-to-head games between the Toronto Sceptres and Ottawa Charge. No one is counting out the New Yorks Sirens just yet either, but the fact that one, or both, of the Charge and Sceptres will be collecting points in their head to head meetings will make things vastly more difficult for the Sirens.
To date, Toronto has two wins to Ottawa's one in their season series, with Toronto out scoring the Charge 8-6 in those three games. Toronto also outshot Ottawa 98-73.
If there's one area the Ottawa Charge could topple the Toronto Sceptres, it's on special teams. The teams have similar penalty kill rates, but Ottawa's power play has been significantly better than Toronto's. Toronto's power play has been operating at an abysmal 9.4% this season compared to Ottawa's 19.2%, which is third best in the PWHL. The Charge have tallied the highest percentage of their total goals this season on the power play scoring 26.3% of their goals with the player advantage. At even strength, the teams have an identical 41 goals this season. When it comes to deciding the final playoff spot, special teams could be the difference.
The Ottawa Charge don't do well when they start in a hole. When allowing the first goal against, the Charge are only 1-2-1-10 this season, the equivalent of a .190 win percentage. Ottawa has also allowed the second more goals in the league, seven, in the first five minutes of the game, a mark only usurped by last place Seattle. Toronto has scored first 15 times this season compared to Ottawa's 12. While Toronto has slightly more success being scored on first, they also have the least third period goals of any PWHL team this season. Strangely, Ottawa and Toronto are the league's two worst teams in the second period as the only two teams to allow 20 or more goals in the middle frame this season to date.
In their three meetings this season, four players have scored more than once. Fanuza Kadirova and Maggie Connors each scored in two games. Former Toronto forward Rebecca Leslie and former Ottawa forward Daryl Watts also have multiple goals in the season series. Both are among league leaders, and both lead their respective teams in scoring this season.
There's a third scenario here that does not involve Ottawa or Toronto. Game one between Ottawa and Toronto is April 11 at 2pm in Toronto followed by an April 25 meeting in Ottawa. While the focus remains on these two teams who sit fourth and fifth, the New York Sirens are hovering only two points back of Ottawa with a game in hand, and three points behind Toronto. It's significant to note as the New York Sirens play the Toronto Sceptres twice, and the Ottawa Charge once in their final five games. Winning those three games could be enough to sneak in, but the Sirens will need help.