Tonight begins the third series in a row in which the O’s face a team currently sitting in last place in its division. It’s unusual to find the Astros resembling that remark, as they’ve been consistently good for the better part of a decade, making the playoffs eight times in the last ten years.
The problem for Houston this year is its pitching. They enter this series ranked last in the majors in ERA, with a 5.97 team mark. That comprises an especially bad 6.31 bullpen ERA, but their rotation is also second-to-last in ERA, as well. That is a lot of bad pitching.
On the other hand, the Astros also have a league-leading 15 players on the IL. So there are reasons for the struggles. And a few stars are carrying the team, anyway. Yordan Alvarez has been going ham (no one still says that, right?), with an MLB-leading 1.220 OPS and 11 homers (tied for second with Aaron Judge) in 29 games. Former Oriole Christian Walker is also hitting annoyingly well, with a .946 OPS and seven home runs. Carlos Correa, reunited with the team that drafted him, is hitting .281, although not for much power, and José Altuve continues to be good (.260 BA/.358 OBP/.413 SLG).
Tonight’s Astros starter is Taiwan product Kai-Wei Teng. The bad news: he’s been good. The good news: he hasn’t started a game yet this season, and he’s not a left-hander (against whom the O’s are 0-6). The 27-year-old from Taiwan was traded from San Francisco to Houston this offseason, and the results have been there in 11 appearances out of the bullpen (1-1, 2.16 ERA). Teng’s four-seam fastball sits at 94.5 mph and sets up a dominant sweeper, easily his best pitch. Opponents have just an .074 average against it.
So far this season, Teng’s high pitch count is 39. Still, this may be less an opener gambit by Houston than a desperation move given a lack of other available options. If Teng can give the Astros 60 pitches, they’ll probably be happy with that. I’m curious to see how that translates multiple times through the order.
It would be super neat if Shane Baz turned in his first great start as an Oriole. In five starts, his best so far was one run allowed over 5.2 innings against the Pirates, a game the Orioles still managed to lose. Three times he’s allowed four runs and three runs the other time. Baz rounding into form would be more for the sake of the 2026 Orioles season than about winning the trade or the extension, although obviously it would be nice for the O’s if those things happen, as well.
Baz’s offspeed stuff has been a particular problem—but then, I checked and hitters are averaging .333 or better against all of his pitches but the cutter. He’s allowing more line drives than at any point in his career, which is a risk against a power-heavy lineup like Houston’s. One thing to be said in his favor: a .360 BABIP is just crazy bad luck. Perhaps tonight’s lineup—featuring three real outfielders—may help Baz bring that number down into manageable territory.