The second-seeded San Antonio Spurs are set to reclaim control of their Western Conference semifinal series as they host the Minnesota Timberwolves in a pivotal Game 5 on Tuesday night. After Minnesota evened the series at 2-2 with a gritty 114-109 win on Sunday, all eyes are on the Spurs' response in front of a home crowd at Frost Bank Center.
Sunday's game took a dramatic turn when Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama was ejected for the first time in his career. The towering rookie's absence proved costly, but the league confirmed he will face no additional discipline and is cleared to play in Game 5. Meanwhile, San Antonio may be without guard De'Aaron Fox, who is listed as questionable with an ankle injury—a potential blow to their backcourt depth.
The Spurs hold a commanding 8-4 all-time postseason advantage over the Timberwolves, and they'll look to leverage that history along with home-court energy. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET, with San Antonio entering as 10.5-point favorites according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The over/under for total points sits at 218.5, suggesting a moderate pace for what promises to be a high-stakes clash.
For those looking to make informed picks, the SportsLine Projection Model—which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times—has been on a remarkable run. The model has generated over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. Entering the second round of the 2026 playoffs, it boasts a sizzling 26-9 record (74%) on top-rated spread picks this season alone. After simulating Spurs vs. Timberwolves 10,000 times, the model has locked in its predictions for Game 5.
Key betting lines for the matchup include the spread (Spurs -10.5), over/under (218.5), and moneyline options. As the series swings back to San Antonio, expect a fired-up Spurs squad looking to regain momentum—and a Timberwolves team hungry to steal another road win. With Wembanyama back in the lineup and Fox's status uncertain, every possession will matter in this postseason showdown.