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The Minnesota Timberwolves opened the playoffs by putting the Denver Nuggets on their heels in Game 1’s first half. Unfortunately for Minnesota, basketball games have two halves.
Rather than hope this series is about to become interesting, my Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks lean on an underrated part of Anthony Edwards’ game, one that should shine once again on Monday, April 20.
To put it plainly: Anthony Edwards did not play particularly well in the Minnesota Timberwolves’ Game 1 loss to the Denver Nuggets. His shooting was poor as he scored only 22 points, and his defense was inconsistent, at best.
Chalk at least some of that up to Edwards’ rust as he recovers from a knee injury. It is distinctly possible we do not see him at 100% this postseason.
But Edwards still contributed. He filled out the stat sheet with seven assists, nine rebounds, and three blocks. The boards, in particular, fit a consistent postseason trend from Edwards.
As the Timberwolves have made the Western Conference Finals in each of the last two years, their franchise cornerstone has crashed the glass more aggressively in the postseason. In 2023-24, Edwards averaged 5.4 rebounds per game in the regular season. In 2024-25, he averaged 5.7.
In the 2024 playoffs, Edwards grabbed at least six rebounds in 10 of 16 games, averaging seven per game across three series. In the 2025 playoffs, he grabbed at least six rebounds in 12 of 15 games, averaging 7.8.
Snagging nine boards in the Game 1 loss was not a surprise. The only surprise is sportsbooks not ticking this prop upward for Edwards in the postseason.
The Timberwolves did not spend enough time in transition in Game 1, one of their possible edges against the Nuggets. Minnesota is both deeper and, at times, faster. It leaned into transition opportunities following the trade deadline acquisition of Ayo Dosunmu. Leaning into those in the postseason is more important than in March.
If a balky knee slows Edwards, then that should mean only more transition opportunities for Jaden McDaniels and Dosunmu.
This makes far more sense than it looks at first blush.
McDaniels also missed some of the closing stretch due to a knee worry. In his two games before the postseason, McDaniels went 1-for-8 from deep. For someone who otherwise shot 42.1% from beyond the arc this season, a 1-for-8 stretch stands out.
It is safe to assume McDaniels’s rhythm is a bit off. However, he scored 18 and 16 points in those two games, just as he scored 16 points in Game 1 while going 0-for-4 from deep.
The second-most important piece of the Timberwolves’ rotation still scores even when his 3-point looks are not falling, perhaps the best compliment to give to his ever-developing offensive game.
Spread: Timberwolves +6.5 (-110) | Nuggets -6.5 (-110)
The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 1H Spread in 20 of their last 30 away games (+9.65 Units / 28% ROI), including in Game 1. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.
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