Every baseball season has its share of surprises, and the first 40 games of the Dodgers' campaign have delivered plenty of material for fans to overreact to. Let's break it down.

Back in April, before heading to St. Louis and Houston, our staff revisited a question we'd asked at the start of the season: just how many games will this Dodgers team win? By April 28, after 30 games, Los Angeles sat at 20-10—a blistering 108-win pace that even the most optimistic among us didn't dare predict. It was the kind of start that makes you believe in destiny.

But here's where things get interesting. In our preseason predictions, I went with 92 wins—by far the most conservative take on the staff. Truth be told, I was originally thinking 90 wins and maybe even a second-place finish in the division. I bumped it to 92 only because I figured that record might not be enough for the No. 2 seed. Call it cautious, call it realistic—I just saw a team that had coasted through last season, made big offseason moves, and still had question marks about how long those veteran legs could hold up.

I never once thought I'd have to eat crow. This team looked legit. But long offseasons for older clubs? They tend to write checks that eventually come due.

Fast forward to May 10, and the Dodgers are 24-16—a 97.2-win pace. Ouch. That's still excellent, but the shine has worn off a bit. The offense, which looked unstoppable early, has scuffled in unexpected ways over the past two weeks. Losing two of three to the lowly San Francisco Giants? That's as big a red flag as you'll see this season. The Giants are turning into a soap opera, while the Rockies and Cardinals at least have some fight. The Giants? Not so much.

Now, could this team still go 116-46 and romp to an 11-0 postseason? Absolutely. But that would require everything going right—and the naysayers being wrong about the league's competitive balance. What we saw last year was a team that coasted through the regular season but flipped a switch in October. Assuming good health, expect more of the same. The Dodgers will roll into October, beat the Seattle Mariners in five largely uncompetitive games, and send the league into an enraged howl.

For now, though, the first 40 games have given us plenty to chew on. The pace has slowed, the offense has stumbled, and the Giants series was a wake-up call. But if you're a Dodgers fan, you know the real story starts in October. Everything else is just overreaction.