The Kansas City Royals’ struggles to start the season can mostly placed on the offense. They entered Monday’s game last in MLB in runs scored, and the only reason they left that position was that the Mets had a day off Monday and the Royals had the benefit of the Zombie Runner in extra innings. While I still see improved plate discipline in the underlying statistics, my column praising their approach aged like milk. The offense right now is a disaster.

Still, the Royals have had two leads entering the ninth inning over the past week, and manager Matt Quatraro turned to reliever Lucas Erceg to secure the save. Unfortunately, Erceg blew the save against the Detroit Tigers on Thursday and the Baltimore Orioles on Monday. Not that any blown save feels good for fans or players, but both of these blown leads felt particularly brutal.

Erceg entered the ninth inning Thursday in Detroit with a two-run lead. Vinnie Pasquantino hit his first home run of the season Thursday in the top of the ninth inning, which gave the team an insurance run, and I was feeling great about their chances to salvage a game against the Tigers. Erceg let the first two batters reach, then got the next two batters out. Frustratingly, the next two Detroit hitters got hits, driving in three runs and giving Erceg his first blown save of the year in a complete gut punch of a loss.

The Royals right-hander had his next chance at redemption on Monday night at Kauffman against the Orioles. He procedeed to walk Gunnar Henderson, pick off Henderson (the shortstops second pickoff out of the night), sandwiched a pair of walks around a groundout before allowing a single to Samuel Basallo which tied the game. Erceg escaped the inning without losing the game, but the Royals would never regain the lead. The Royals and Orioles would go back in forth in extra innings before Baltimore blew the game open with a five-run twelth inning. Kansas City fought valiantly back, but ended up losing 7-5 in a game that felt straight out of 2006.

The Royals offensive ineptitude and twelfth inning meltdown on Monday wasn’t Erceg’s fault, but it’s beyond frustrating to see an offense strand 16 runners and blow a save in the same game. It feels like the Royals can’t catch a break right now and are pressing because of it, and I’d be surprised if the players aren’t feeling some of that as well. Having a shutdown closer wouldn’t magically fix all of this team’s problems, but it could at least help staunch the bleeding while the offense remembers how to drive in runners. Right now, however, the team’s former shutdown closer has gotten shaky.

So what is going on with Erceg? We are still in a very small sample size for this year, but he was not as dominant last year as he was in 2024 when the Royals acquired him in a trade from the Oakland Athletics, so this is starting to feel like a trend away from his dominance. Erceg’s strikeout rate dropped dramatically last year, from 10.51 K/9 to 7.04. He induced more ground balls which helped him remain effective , but all the underlying statistics suggest he was fortunate to only post a 2.64 ERA.

It’s still an extremely small sample size for this year, but the trend line for less strikeouts has continued. His 2026 K/9 after 8.1 innings pitched is 5.4. He’s walked more batters than he has struck out. His Statcast page suggests that he’s earned his results and has not just been unlucky; the reliever is in the 6th percentile in chase rate and the 2nd percentile in whiff percentage. In 2024, he was in the 84th percentile in chase and 86th percentile in whiff percentage. He may be third in the AL in saves with five, but the underlying numbers and the last two outings paint a portrait of a pitcher who is really struggling.

Last night’s at-bat against Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso was a perfect illustration of the struggle Erceg is having right now. The reliever had Alonso down 1-2 in the count, but then threw three straight sliders out of the zone and Alonso did not chase any of them. The Polar Bear had two straight check swings on the first two sliders, but he managed to just hold up. After Alonso drew a walk, Basallo hit a 1-2 fastball for a single, tying the game. 2024 Erceg is for sure able to strike out either Alonso or Basallo, but so far 2026 Erceg was not able to punch out either hitter, and the Royals paid for it.

I actually thought the life on Erceg’s pitches Monday night looked good, but his control was not sharp, hence the three walks. I don’t know how much of a leash the Royals can have with Erceg right now to figure out his command. The Royals need effective Erceg to return and in a hurry, or they need to move on to their third choice to close games this year. The team is 7-16 and trying to avoid playing themselves out of the playoffs before May. If the team feels like that even if they do have a lead it will just be blown in the ninth, then this season will go completely haywire.The 7-16 start and seven game losing streak hasn’t been Erceg’s fault, but he’s at least been part of the problem and not part of the solution.