The college football offseason is heating up, and with it comes the annual tradition of early projections. This week, the spotlight turns to the Mountain West Conference as Bill Connelly’s influential SP+ rankings offer a data-driven glimpse into the 2026 season. Let's break down the early outlook for the conference's ten teams.

Topping the Mountain West charts are the UNLV Rebels, who also claim the #2 spot among all Group of Six schools. With head coach Dan Mullen back at the helm and an offense projected to be among the nation's elite, the Rebels have a clear path to playoff contention. The key to their season, however, will be a defense that needs significant improvement to match their explosive offensive potential.

Not far behind are the New Mexico Lobos, a team brimming with returning talent and led by one of the conference's most respected coaches. The SP+ metrics see them as remarkably balanced on both sides of the ball. If they can find consistency at quarterback and tighten up their secondary, the Lobos have the pieces to not only challenge for the Mountain West title but also make noise in the expanded playoff picture.

All eyes will also be on the conference's newest member, the North Dakota State Bison. The legendary FCS program is expected to be competitive immediately in its FBS debut. While postseason play is off the table for them this cycle, their entry adds a fascinating new dynamic and a major test, as they look to prove their powerhouse status translates to the highest level of college football.