Every comeback story needs a turning point. For Cincinnati Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott, that moment might just happen tonight under the lights at Wrigley Field.

On the surface, the numbers suggest Abbott hasn't changed much from his breakout All-Star campaign in 2025. His fastball—never overpowering to begin with—is sitting just 0.4 mph slower than last year's average, a negligible dip that can be chalked up to April's cooler temperatures. He's leaning on his curveball and changeup at almost identical rates, and he's all but abandoned his cutter (just 0.3% usage this year, down from 4.3% last season).

But dig a little deeper, and the cracks begin to show. The velocity on his secondary pitches has gone haywire. His curveball, which averaged 81.0 mph last season, has dropped nearly two full ticks to 79.3 mph. Meanwhile, his changeup has jumped almost a full mph, from 84.8 to 85.7. When your off-speed stuff loses its separation, hitters start to catch up—and that's exactly what's happened.

According to FanGraphs, the pitch values on both his curve and change have cratered as Abbott has struggled to find his footing in 2026. Even more alarming? His fastball—ranked among the 21 best in baseball last year among pitchers with 100+ innings—has lost nearly all of its effectiveness.

Perhaps the most telling stat, though, comes from Statcast. Abbott's arm angle has shifted from 48 degrees in 2025 to 52 degrees so far this season. Whether that's an intentional adjustment or a mechanical drift remains unclear, but a four-degree change is significant enough to throw off a pitcher's entire command.

There was a glimmer of hope on April 30, when Abbott turned in his best start since Opening Day against the Colorado Rockies. Of course, facing the Rockies at home comes with an asterisk. The real test comes Tuesday night in Chicago, where Abbott will take the mound against Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon in the second game of this series.

For Reds fans—and anyone who loves a good bounce-back story—the hope is that tonight marks the beginning of Abbott's renaissance, not another chapter in his April struggles. Because in baseball, as in life, the best stories are the ones where the hero finds his way back. And Abbott's journey is just getting started.