The long slog of the NFL Draft cycle is near an end. On Thursday night, we will finally put an end to all the speculation as Pittsburgh hosts one of the most televised and picked-over hiring events known to man.
We’ve posted many a mock draft here on BTSC, but it’s been a few weeks since I’ve cranked one out. In that time, we’ve gotten new intel on who the Steelers have brought in for pre-draft visits. These visits have traditionally been an indicator for the Steelers. The Steelers’ last three first-round picks have all visited the Pittsburgh facilities. Likewise, the position groups invited to visit, and their expected draft ranges, have also been an indication, even if the Steelers don’t always draft exclusively players they’ve brought in for a visit.
So we have our clues, now it’s time to do what any draft nerd loves to do: provide you with a double dose of mock drafts. Today we’ll be running dueling mocks. For one, I’ll be using my “head” to try to decode what general manager Omar Khan is thinking. The second will be what my “heart” wants, how I would approach things if I were calling the shots.
As we mentioned up top, the Steelers have selected a pre-draft visitor in the first round in every draft so far under Omar Khan. There is speculation that could change with Mike Tomlin’s departure, but I don’t think that was purely a Mike Tomlin preference. After all, Tomlin was around for much longer than Khan has been making the picks for the Steelers, and this wasn’t as notable a trend previously.
While I think in the Steelers heart of hearts, they’re hoping for one of Olaivavega Ioane or Spencer Fano to fall to them, I also believe both will be long gone by pick 21 and that the Steelers will stand pat and decline to trade up.
That leaves Pittsburgh picking between three other visitors: safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, wide receiver Denzel Boston, and cornerback Chris Johnson. There is rarely a consensus on positional ranks in the draft community, but McNeil-Warren seems to offer the top value of those three, and has the highest ADP in mock drafts and consensus boards. Depending on team preferences around the league, McNeil-Warren is seen as either the second or third-best safety in the class. Meanwhile, Boston is reportedly ranked anywhere from WR3 to WR6 on teams’ big boards. Chris Johnson mirrors a similar range for cornerbacks, though I believe most teams view him far closer to CB3 than CB6.
There are a handful of safety-needy teams (Minnesota, Dallas) ahead of the Steelers, but they seemingly would prefer a deep/post safety like Oregon’s Dillon Thieneman. If that’s the case, McNeil-Warren could fall right into the Steelers lap. His ability to play near the line of scrimmage, in the slot, split safety, and deep safety would give defensive coordinator Patrick Graham a versatile player whose got a penchant for creating turnovers. McNeil-Warren has mastered the “peanut punch” to force fumbles, with 11 forced fumbles in his college career and 16 turnovers overall.
The Steelers have four picks on the second night of the draft. There’s been plenty of chatter among fans and local media that the team could theoretically use all the extra draft capital they’ve acquired to move around the board and ensure they get “their guy,” and that could realistically happen. Still, I’ve thought the certainty with which some fans have spoken about this strategy disregards that the Steelers are a top-heavy roster that needs an influx of talented depth, and that many of their current players are on short-term deals. The draft is a numbers game, and more bites at the apple give the team a better chance at building a stronger roster and a chance at finding multiple starters, especially with so many Day 2 picks at their disposal.
So I think the Steelers stay pat on Day 2 as well and play the board. Here’s how I have Day 2 working out:
The Steelers cover a lot of needs with these picks. Wide receiver is among the most glaring, and after passing on a pass catcher with their top pick, the Steelers pull a move typical of both the team and new head coach Mike McCarthy’s history, and take one in the second round. Bernard can play all three positions, creates after the catch, is not shy to block in the run game or downfield for his teammates, and was brought in for a pre-draft visit. He’s one of my favorite fits for the team.
Germie Bernard might be a bit vanilla compared to some of the height/weight/speed guys in this classbut he was the focal point of Alabama's offense – even the manufactured touch stuff and cool ass plays went through himGermie maximizes what he has pic.twitter.com/ZM1Jy1pjJb
The Steelers have also been doing plenty of work with the cornerback class during pre-draft visits, bringing in both nickel and outside options. Igbinosun is a tall, long-limbed press corner who has 4.45 speed and who delivers hard hits as a tackler for his position. He wasn’t brought in for a pre-draft visit, but not all of the Steelers picks will be. Assistant general manager Andy Weidl and scout Jim Ward were in attendance at Ohio State’s Pro Day, so I wouldn’t write any Buckeyes off the Steelers’ board.
Jackson Jr. was another pre-draft visitor and reminds me a lot of Joshua Farmer, a pre-draft visitor from Florida State just a year ago. Both players possess incredibly long arms, but Jackson doesn’t quite have the pass-rushing upside and penetrating skill that Farmer had. Rather, he’s a much better run stuffer, which is frankly what Pittsburgh needs more of at this moment.
Lastly, the Steelers have brought in just about every quarterback not named Fernando Mendoza for a pre-draft visit, indicating there is heavy interest in draft one this year. While I don’t personally care for Drew Allar as a prospect, he checks a lot of boxes. McCarthy was quoted this draft cycle as saying he looks for big quarterbacks with long arms and big hands, and Allar certainly fits the bill. It’s also not hard to picture McCarthy envisioning a way to hone Allar’s big, explosive arm power into a more consistent player than he was in college.
Trade – PIT sends 4.121 to WAS / receives 5.147, 6.187, 2027 7th
Guard remained the biggest glaring need after the first two nights of the draft. There were guards who tempted me in previous rounds, but Pittsburgh stays patient and selects Iowa’s Beau Stephens in the fourth. Pittsburgh found a starter in Mason McCormick in the fourth round in recent years, and with Spencer Anderson and Brock Hoffman already in-house, they can look to solidify other areas of weakness of the roster first, and still end up with a potential starter.
The 121 pick, coming in round four, ended up being a strange spot where all the top players on the board were not necessarily scheme fits or areas of weakness for Pittsburgh. I took this opportunity to predict a trade back, something Khan loves to do. Washington sends us two picks in this draft and a late 2027 pick, which Khan can use for future trades if he wishes.
With the rest of the picks, the Steelers select a few more pre-draft visitors — Klein, Law, Thompson Jr., and Pittsburgh native Dugger —to cover needs at tight end, receiver/returner, slot corner, tackle, and add depth to the linebackers and defensive line.
For this last draft, we’re throwing out simulators. We’re daring to dream beyond rigid ADPs (within reason) what we’ll eventually learn were the misconceptions we had about this particular draft class. Happens most years, even if we get a lot right. There are always players that get locked into certain teams; think about how last year, everyone penciled in a tight end for Tampa Bay. Or this year, how everyone has Dillon Thieneman going to the Vikings.
No, in this mock, we’re picking players I would love to see in the Black and Gold. Once we get past Day 2, we’re going to be a little less specific with specific pick numbers and list some players I’d be happy to see drafted in the unpredictable scramble that is Day 3.
