Starting Pitcher Targets using zone rates: Why Kyle Harrison, Braxton Ashcraft, more are surging

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Starting Pitcher Targets using zone rates: Why Kyle Harrison, Braxton Ashcraft, more are surging

Starting Pitcher Targets using zone rates: Why Kyle Harrison, Braxton Ashcraft, more are surging

Eric Samulski breaks down potential starting pitcher adds based on early season command metrics.

Starting Pitcher Targets using zone rates: Why Kyle Harrison, Braxton Ashcraft, more are surging

Eric Samulski breaks down potential starting pitcher adds based on early season command metrics.

As the baseball season settles into its rhythm, early-season "hot starts" are starting to reveal real changes—and the pitchers who are making the most of them. On the mound, a new factor is shaking things up: the automated strike zone (ABS). Across the league, zone rates have dropped as pitchers grapple with the new strike zone, leaving some fringe artists (like Logan Webb) struggling out of the gate.

That trend, plus a recent conversation between Nick Pollack and Eno Sarris on "The Craft" podcast, sparked a deeper look. I built a leaderboard of starting pitchers who are outperforming the league in three key areas: zone rate, swinging strike rate (SwStr%), and keeping pitches out of the heart of the zone. In simple terms, these are the guys throwing strikes—but not *hittable* strikes—and missing bats at an impressive clip. These are the arms you want on your roster.

For context, here are the league averages for starting pitchers so far this season:

  • Zone rate: 41.6%
  • Heart-zone rate (H-Zone%): 25.4%
  • SwStr%: 10.6%

First, let's highlight the pitchers who qualified across all three categories. These are your top waiver-wire targets and trade chips. Then, we'll dive into a second group—those who just missed in one area—because sometimes the best finds are just outside the spotlight.

Keep an eye on names like Kyle Harrison and Braxton Ashcraft, who are surging thanks to sharp command and an ability to work the edges. If you're looking for an edge in your fantasy league, these zone-rate standouts are worth a long look.

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