The stakes couldn’t be higher as the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves clash in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal series on Friday night. After a dominant 133-95 win in Game 2, the second-seeded Spurs are looking to seize control of the best-of-seven matchup, while the sixth-seeded Timberwolves aim to protect home court at Target Center in Minneapolis.
All eyes will be on Anthony Edwards, who is officially available for Minnesota despite a knee issue that had fans holding their breath. The Timberwolves’ star guard has been the engine of their offense all season, and his presence on the floor could shift the momentum back in Minnesota’s favor. On the other side, Spurs guard Ayo Dosunmu is listed as questionable with a heel injury, adding a layer of uncertainty to San Antonio’s rotation.
Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET, and the betting market is leaning toward the Spurs, who enter as 5.5-point favorites. The over/under for total points is pegged at 216.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. But before you lock in any picks, it’s worth considering what the numbers say—especially from a model that has been on fire this postseason.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, has been a reliable guide for bettors. Over the past eight-plus seasons, it has generated well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks. Entering the second round of the 2026 playoffs, the model is riding a scorching 26-9 run (74%) on top-rated spread picks this season. That kind of consistency is hard to ignore, whether you’re a casual fan or a seasoned bettor.
After running its simulations for Spurs vs. Timberwolves, the model has revealed a clear lean: it’s going Under on the total of 216.5. This aligns with recent trends—the Under has hit in five of the last seven San Antonio games and in four of the last six Minnesota contests. With both teams capable of locking down defensively, especially in a high-pressure playoff environment, a lower-scoring affair could be in the cards.
For those looking to stream the action, the game will be widely available on major platforms. Whether you’re watching from home or gearing up for game day in your favorite Spurs or Timberwolves gear, this is a pivotal moment in the series. Will San Antonio’s depth and momentum carry them to a 2-1 lead, or can Minnesota rally behind Edwards and the home crowd to steal back the advantage?