Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold is no stranger to the 4,000-yard passing milestone—he hit it for the second time in his career during the 2025 season. But as the 2026 campaign approaches, the question on every fan's mind is whether he can make it three straight years.

Darnold enters next season with a familiar supporting cast, but there's a notable shake-up in the backfield. The Seahawks will be without last season's Super Bowl MVP, running back Kenneth Walker III, and will also start the year without Zach Charbonnet, who is sidelined with a torn ACL. That puts extra pressure on the passing game, especially with rookie running back Jadarian Price expected to take the reins as the starter.

According to ESPN's Mike Clay in his 2026 NFL Projection Guide, Darnold is projected to fall just shy of the 4,000-yard mark. Clay forecasts the former USC standout to complete 65.4 percent of his passes for 3,924 yards, with a 24-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That completion percentage would mark a dip from the 67.7 percent he posted in 2025, even though his projected pass attempts are set to rise from 477 to 491.

Despite the statistical dip, there's reason for optimism. With Charbonnet out, Seattle may lean even more heavily on the passing attack, and Darnold will have the benefit of a full season with wide receiver Rashid Shaheed, who joined the squad mid-year in 2025. If the chemistry clicks, Darnold could very well eclipse the 4,000-yard barrier for a third consecutive season—and prove the projections wrong.