The Kentucky Derby is back, and this year's "Run for the Roses" is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. When the starting gate swings open at 6:57 p.m. Saturday at Churchill Downs, 20 determined 3-year-olds will battle it out in the 152nd running of the first leg of the Triple Crown.
With the morning line favorite sitting at just 4-1 and the longest shot at 50-1, the field is packed with contenders. Factor in the chaos of 1 1/4 miles in front of over 100,000 roaring fans, and you've got a race where half the field has a legitimate shot. So, who's going to wear the roses? Let's dive into Rick's Picks.
First Place: Chief Wallabee (8-1)
Trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado are chasing history. After winning the 2025 Derby with Sovereignty, they're looking to become the first trainer/jockey duo to go back-to-back since Lucien Laurin and Ron Turcotte did it with Riva Ridge and Secretariat in 1972-73. Chief Wallabee finished third in the Florida Derby despite a rough trip, just a half-length behind Commandment and The Puma. Mott has added blinkers to keep him focused, and with two Derby wins under his belt, you know this horse is ready.
Second Place: Commandment (6-1)
Commandment edged out The Puma by a nose to win the Grade 1 Florida Derby, extending a four-race winning streak that began last November at Churchill Downs. Jockey Luis Saez is 0-for-12 in the Derby but gets his first shot aboard Commandment, while trainer Brad Cox is 1-for-12, with his lone win coming via disqualification in 2021. Can Commandment break the trends?
Third Place: The Puma (10-1)
Trained by Gustavo Delgado, who won the 2023 Derby with Mage, and ridden by the legendary Javier Castellano, The Puma lost the most competitive Derby prep by a whisker. The concern? He's only won one of four starts, always coming close but not quite sealing the deal. Still, with Delgado's Derby pedigree, don't count him out.
Fourth Place: Renegade (4-1)
If Renegade had drawn any post other than the dreaded No. 1, he might be my pick. It's been 40 years since a horse won from the rail (Ferdinand in 1986). Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is the best in the U.S. but has never finished in the money in nine Derby mounts. Trainer Todd Pletcher has two Derby wins but a record 65 starters. Expect Renegade to drop back early, but with this talent, he could still make a late charge.