A lot of NFL pundits make their draft predictions and then run when they’re wrong. Not me! I think it can be hilarious to see how poorly I did. If you’re new to my work, I base my draft predictions on analyzing the visits the Buffalo Bills have had with players and seeing if time + energy = predictive validity.

Some years are better than others, so let’s see how 2026 was for me.

Yeah, this is a pretty straightforward exercise. No point dragging it on. I’ll start off by posting the list of actual draft picks to refresh everyone’s memory, then run through every single one of my analytics-based predictions and see how I did.

Round 2, Pick 35 — OLB TJ ParkerRound 2, Pick 62 — CB Davison IgbinosunRound 4, Pick 102 — T/G Jude BowryRound 4, Pick 125 — WR Skyler BellRound 4, Pick 126 — LB Kaleb Elarms-OrrRound 5, Pick 167 — S Jalon KilgoreRound 5, Pick 181 — DT Zane DurantRound 7, Pick 220 — CB Toriano Pride Jr.Round 7, Pick 239 — P Tommy Doman Jr.Round 7, Pick 241 — G Ar’maj Reed-Adams

I always do a definitive pick on who I believe the Bills are targeting and for this year, the incredibly high number of wide receiver visits led to me picking KC Concepcion. Repeated visits with Concepcion helped solidify the pick for me. Many analysts predicted Concepcion as a late first-round talent, which didn’t hurt my guess by any means.

It’s hard to say I was completely wrong on Concepcion as the Cleveland Browns picked him at 24, before the Bills had their chance. That said, I was wrong in the fact that a wide receiver would be the first choice. It’s possible Concepcion was the hope and that he was the only one they wanted in the first, but we’ll never know unless Brandon Beane does the unthinkable and gives us their real draft board. In other words, let’s just say I missed.

Because I know that all it takes is one team to muck it up, I always have a Plan B selection. For this year I felt it was Christen Miller, defensive tackle. Well, the Bills could have selected Miller at a few different spots. Despite all the trading, they even made a selection with Miller on the board, electing to take T.J. Parker instead. So there’s no victory here for me, I’m calling this definitively wrong.

I took a swing at Gracen Halton being another target at defensive tackle having met with Buffalo twice (there weren’t many repeat visitors in this year’s data). Halton went to the 49ers in round 4. The Bills had three selections before that, including the selection of Jude Bowry just a few spots before Halton, so this was wrong too.

I highlighted the defensive back smoke as being real and while I tossed out one name, it wasn’t with much confidence. I did say “I think they’ll pick a defensive back or two.” I didn’t necessarily say “three” but I will give myself credit for the hunch that this position would be targeted more than once. I’m calling this one a win.

I predicted they’d take a punter either in Round 7 or undrafted and that’s another win for me.

I wrote; “Aside from wide receiver, don’t expect much on offense.” They picked three players on offense out of ten which is definitely a defensive draft. It’s also notable that the only skill player they took was a receiver which was a predicted priority (though again, it wasn’t the first pick they made).

It wasn’t officially on my list of predictions, but I like to be fair in my lookbacks. I was pretty firm that there was no reason to think OLB/EDGE would be a priority and it was their first pick. The data and I had that way wrong.

Not a terrible result this year, but not my best either. I’ll get another shot to redeem myself a year from now.