It’s draft week and the Texans are on the clock in just over 72 hours. It’s the calm before the storm that is Nick Caserio’s draft-day antics. Will he move out of the first round for the third straight draft, or will he leverage the additional draft capital he has to trade up in the first round? Will they build for the future by adding depth at key positions, or will they try to ‘win now’ and go all-in for stars that can contribute right away?
Over the past fifteen years, only four trades have occurred with the 28th pick in the NFL Draft. Unfortunately for those hoping the Texans move up, it’s only occurred one time in the past decade and a half.
Each trade presents a different scenario that the Houston Texans can emulate this week. Considering the Texans complete an AVERAGE of five trades per draft, there’s reason to believe Caserio will make a move with his first pick in this class.
2011 first-round pick (No. 28): Mark Ingram, RB
2011 second-round pick (No. 56) -> Shane Vereen, RB
2015 first-round pick (No. 28): Laken Tomlinson, OG
2015 fifth-round pick (No. 143): traded to Minnesota
2016 first-round pick (No. 28): Joshua Garnett, OG
2016 seventh-round pick (No. 249): Prince Charles Iworah, CB
2016 second-round pick (No. 37): Chris Jones, DT
2016 fourth-round pick (No. 105): Parker Ehinger, OG
2016 sixth-round pick (No. 178): D.J. White, CB
2024 first-round pick (No. 28): Xavier Worthy, WR
2024 fourth-round pick (No. 133): DB Jaden Hicks, DB
2024 seventh-round pick (No. 248): C.J. Hanson, OG
2024 first-round pick (No. 32): Pick traded to Panthers: Xavier Legette, WR
2024 third-round pick (No 95): DT DeWayne Carter, DT
2024 seventh-round pick (No. 221); (from Tennessee): Travis Clayton, OT
Of these trades, I would be happiest with the redo-ing the Bills trade back. Moving back four spots earned them a 38-pick move up from their fourth round pick and 27 pick improvement in the seventh round. The Bills appear to have lost this trade however, as Worthy and Jaden Hicks have proven to be solid picks for the Chiefs.
The most intriguing pick is by far the 2016 trade. Considering With the 38th pick only 10 spots away, Houston can afford to trade out of the first round. Stockpiling a 2027 first-rounder in a loaded class is a savvy long-term play to offset the massive contracts soon hitting the books.