The NFL schedule dropped Thursday night, and it didn't take long for the hot takes to start rolling in. One NFL writer has already predicted the New England Patriots will finish below .500, but his reasoning might leave Patriots fans scratching their heads.

Bleacher Report's Moe Moton has the Patriots going 8-9 in 2026, and his first argument is one we've heard before: the schedule. "NFL teams can only play the opponents on the schedule," Moton wrote. "That said, we can't ignore the fact that the New England Patriots had a favorable 17-game slate. In 2026, the Patriots will play a first-place schedule. They'll face the NFC North, a division that had three playoff teams last year, and the AFC West. New England won't have the schedule breaks it had in the previous season."

It's true—the Patriots have been hearing about their "easy" schedule for a while now. They silenced some of that chatter during their playoff run, but critics still point to Bo Nix's injury as the reason they reached the Super Bowl. What gets lost in that narrative? This is a talented team that handled business against weaker opponents and found ways to win against the good ones. A tougher schedule is the go-to reason for writing off the Patriots, so Moton isn't breaking new ground here. But his second reason is where things get interesting.

"Quarterback Drake Maye could have an upgraded receiver room, but with the current pass-catching group, the Patriots have a pedestrian aerial attack," Moton wrote. "New acquisition Romeo Doubs hasn't recorded more than 59 receptions in a single season. Also, lead skipper Mike Vrabel is getting counseling for a 'personal and private matter' that could impact his coaching, especially if he's away from the team for short periods during the season."

Calling out the passing attack might be the only valid point Moton makes—but even that misses some context. Doubs' low reception numbers aren't a reflection of his talent; they're a product of the offense he came from. In Green Bay, Matt LaFleur's system spreads the ball around, and Doubs was just one piece of a deep receiver rotation. Now, as the potential No. 1 option in New England, his role—and his numbers—could look very different.

As for the Vrabel situation? That's a wild card, no doubt. But betting against a Bill Belichick-trained coach with a chip on his shoulder and a young quarterback on the rise? That's a gamble most Patriots fans wouldn't take.