As the clay court season heats up, all eyes are on Jannik Sinner, who now stands as the clear frontrunner for his first Roland Garros title—and a shot at completing the Career Grand Slam. This opportunity comes after Carlos Alcaraz, the two-time defending champion in Paris, was forced to withdraw from both the French Open and the Italian Open due to a wrist injury that flared up during the clay swing.
Alcaraz had been chasing a third consecutive title at Roland Garros, following an epic five-set victory over Sinner last year that many hailed as one of the greatest Grand Slam finals in history. Without his biggest rival in the draw, Sinner enters the tournament as the overwhelming favorite, looking to add a fifth major trophy to his already impressive resume.
But while the path may look clearer, the Italian star has a lingering question mark hanging over his game—and it’s not about his forehand or his fitness. It’s about his mindset in the marathon matches that define champions.
Sinner’s 2025 season started with a semifinal loss to Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open, a grueling four-hour battle that exposed a troubling pattern. Patrick Mouratoglou, the former coach of Serena Williams, recently pointed to a startling statistic on Instagram: in matches lasting three hours and 50 minutes or more, Sinner has lost all nine he’s played. Alcaraz, by contrast, has won 15 of 16 such encounters.
“I don’t think it’s a physical problem,” Mouratoglou wrote. “The only other explanation possible is that it’s mental.”
He went on to explain that Sinner’s dominant style often leaves him unchallenged. “Sinner has won 88% of his matches in 2025 and 2026 without dropping a single set. Alcaraz, in the same period, has won only 70% of his matches without dropping a set. Alcaraz has to fight and find solutions to win. Sinner doesn’t have to do it.”
That lack of adversity, Mouratoglou argues, could be a hidden weakness. “When it comes to very long matches, he has to find solutions to win, which is something that he doesn’t have to deal with most of the season. Some doubts can come in. Then it can affect your belief in your ability to find a solution.”
For Sinner, the only major title missing from his collection is Roland Garros. He came agonizingly close last year, falling just short in that unforgettable final against Alcaraz. Now, with his rival sidelined, the question isn’t just whether Sinner can lift the trophy—it’s whether he can conquer the mental hurdles that have tripped him up when the matches go the distance.