Monday's MLB slate brings a full 10-game lineup, offering plenty of opportunities for sharp bettors. Among the most exciting prop bets are home run picks, and SportsLine's proven expert Angelo "Amags" Magliocca has identified a standout candidate for tonight: Baltimore Orioles superstar Gunnar Henderson.

Magliocca, a highly profitable MLB capper, leverages deep statistical analysis to find value. His track record speaks for itself, with significant gains over recent seasons. For his top home run prop tonight, he's zeroing in on Henderson's powerful matchup.

The reigning AL Rookie of the Year is off to a scorching start in April, already blasting five homers and amassing 28 total bases. He enters Monday tied for the MLB lead in home runs, and the conditions at Camden Yards are setting up perfectly for another long ball. Expect warm temperatures, rising humidity, and winds blowing out—a classic recipe for extra distance on fly balls.

The pitching matchup heavily favors Henderson. He'll face Arizona's Ryne Nelson, a right-hander who relies on his fastball about 60% of the time against lefties like Henderson. That's a dangerous tendency this season, as Nelson has already surrendered three homers on that pitch to left-handed batters. Henderson, in turn, is crushing right-handed fastballs, with four of his five homers coming on that pitch, each with elite exit velocities over 103 mph.

Advanced metrics underscore Henderson's surge. His barrel rate is at a career-high 14%, and he's pulling the ball in the air more than ever—a clear sign of an adjusted, power-focused approach. When you combine a hitter in peak form with ideal weather and a favorable pitching matchup, it creates a compelling case for a home run prop.