After a frustrating Friday night, the Baltimore Orioles are back at it this afternoon, looking to shake off the cobwebs and get their offense rolling. It's a 4:05 PM ET start, and the matchup on paper offers some intriguing possibilities—if the bats can finally deliver.
Last night was a tough one. The O's made Jacob Lopez, a starter with a bloated 6.60 ERA, look like a Cy Young contender. They managed just two runs, both on solo home runs, and left fans scratching their heads. But here's the thing about baseball: momentum can shift in a heartbeat.
Today, they face Aaron Civale, a right-hander who's been a bit of a baseball nomad lately. Now in his eighth season, Civale has bounced between six teams since 2023, including a stint with Tampa Bay that some Orioles will remember. His record (3-1, 2.95 ERA) looks impressive, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. With a hard-hit rate flirting with 50% and a strikeout rate of just 6.60 per nine innings, Civale has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this season. His xERA sits at 4.19, suggesting regression is coming. Maybe today is the day the O's cash in on that good fortune.
Gunnar Henderson has been a bright spot against Civale, hitting .427 with a home run in just seven at-bats. But the rest of the lineup has struggled: Adley Rutschman is 1-for-9, Pete Alonso 1-for-5, and Taylor Ward is 0-for-10. That's a lot of zeros, but baseball is a game of streaks, and this afternoon could be the turning point.
On the mound for Baltimore is Shane Baz, a right-hander who's been a bit of a roller coaster this season (1-3, 4.99 ERA, 33 strikeouts). He showed flashes of brilliance against Houston on April 28, going 5 2/3 innings with just one run allowed. But his last outing in the Bronx was a different story—five runs in 5 2/3 innings, with five walks. The good news? The Athletics, despite their surprising first-place standing, are not the Yankees at the plate. Baz has faced a few of these hitters before, and the numbers are manageable: Shane Langeliers is 4-for-10 with a home run, Lawrence Butler is 2-for-10, and Nick Kurtz is 0-for-7.
This is a game that feels ripe for a breakout. The Orioles have the talent, the matchup is favorable, and the law of averages suggests they're due. Will they finally put it all together? Let's find out.