The Chicago Cubs are set to face the Cincinnati Reds in just their second NL Central series of the 2026 season, and there's plenty of drama to unpack. The Reds stormed out of the gate, holding first place for the final two weeks of April, but they're coming off a brutal sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates—outscored 27-8 in the three-game set. That's a stark contrast to their 20-14 record, which actually overperforms their expected 15-19 mark, signaling some serious regression concerns.
To get the inside scoop, we checked in with Wick Terrell of SB Nation's Reds blog, Red Reporter, and he's cautiously optimistic. "The good news—great news, in the context of the last three decades—is that the Reds enter Monday's series opener at 20-14," he notes. "A blink ago they were 20-11, a team with more wins through the end of April than either the 1975 or 1976 clubs that took home World Series trophies." That's a historic start, but the cracks are showing.
The Reds boast some serious star power. Shortstop Elly De La Cruz looks electric again, rebounding from a thigh injury that slowed him in the second half of 2025. Sal Stewart is emerging as an offensive force and versatile infielder, while rookie Chase Burns is turning heads—though he won't pitch in this series at Wrigley Field. It's been a fun ride, but the underlying numbers are "terrifying," as Terrell puts it.
Injuries have hit hard: Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo have been sidelined all season, and Brandon Williamson's shoulder issues landed him on the IL last week. That means Chase Petty gets the call to start Monday—a move that didn't go well during his rough rookie campaign in 2025. Before Petty even takes the mound, the Reds' rotation entered Sunday's game with a 5.08 xERA, the sixth-worst in baseball. They've leaned heavily on a bullpen that's posted a 5.19 xERA—the worst in the league—fueled by a 5.95 BB/9 (also worst). Somehow, they've managed a 4.10 ERA, but that screams regression.
Offensively, the Reds have a 90 wRC+, which is below average, and they'll need to step up against a Cubs team looking to make a statement in the division. For fans gearing up for the series, this is a matchup of a team riding high on vibes versus one that's due for a correction—perfect drama for early-season baseball.