The NHL Playoffs are in full swing, but for the teams left on the sidelines, all eyes are on a different kind of trophy: the chance to draft the next generational talent.
The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery takes place Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET, just before the puck drops in Game 2 between the Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche. At the center of this year’s sweepstakes is Penn State phenom Gavin McKenna, the consensus No. 1 overall pick who has scouts buzzing about his game-changing potential.
Teams like the Vancouver Canucks, Chicago Blackhawks, and New York Rangers are considered frontrunners to land McKenna, but in the lottery, anything can happen. A long-shot team could just as easily walk away with the top prize—or settle for the No. 2 pick if fortune doesn't smile their way.
So, who has the best shot? Let’s break down the odds and how the lottery works.
How the NHL Draft Lottery works
The lottery uses a machine with 14 ping-pong balls, creating 1,001 possible four-number combinations. Each team is assigned a set of these combinations based on their odds—multiplied by 10 for clarity. The team with the best odds (the lowest regular-season point total) gets 185 combinations, giving them an 18.5% chance of winning.
Only the 11 teams with the lowest point totals can earn the No. 1 overall pick, as teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots. After the first pick is awarded, a second draw determines the No. 2 pick. Teams ranked 13th through 16th can only jump as high as picks 3-6, so if one of them wins the first draw, the team with the next best odds gets the second pick.
Odds at a glance
The lottery odds are set in reverse order of the regular-season standings. The best team to miss the playoffs—this year, the Washington Capitals—will have the lowest odds of winning the McKenna sweepstakes. Meanwhile, teams at the bottom of the standings will have the highest chances, making every ping-pong ball count.
Whether you're a fan of a rebuilding team or just love the drama of draft night, this year’s lottery promises plenty of excitement. And for those who love repping their team’s future stars, it’s never too early to start thinking about that new jersey.