As the regular season winds down with just one week remaining, the NCAA baseball tournament bracket is seeing some major shake-ups. After Week 13, several teams have made big moves, both climbing into hosting spots and falling out of contention.
The biggest news? Kansas, Oregon State, and Coastal Carolina have dropped out of hosting positions. Meanwhile, West Virginia—fresh off a sweep of Kansas—has stepped up, joining Big Ten contenders Nebraska and Oregon. These teams edged out bubble hopefuls like Wake Forest, Southern Cal, and Oregon State thanks to stronger Quadrant 1 records, a key metric for the selection committee.
On the bubble, things are heating up. New at-large entrants Purdue and Louisiana have joined the field, while East Carolina finds itself on the outside looking in. The Pirates are the first team out, hampered by a 52 RPI and a disappointing 3-6-1 Quad 1 record. Keep an eye on Texas State too: despite a solid 43 RPI and 5-8 Q1 record, the Bobcats' sub-.500 Sun Belt conference record has kept them out. A series win over Marshall could be just what they need to leapfrog into the tournament.
This week's projections also highlight a surprising lack of power conference teams on the bubble. Several big-name programs—including Clemson, Pittsburgh, LSU, and Vanderbilt—have been left out due to poor conference records or low RPIs. It's a reminder that even traditional powerhouses can't afford a slip-up late in the season.
When it comes to seeding, the 2-seeds were arranged in groups of four, with one notable exception: Oklahoma was moved down to avoid an SEC rematch. The 3- and 4-seeds were assigned based on geography, keeping travel manageable for the regional rounds.
Projected automatic bids were determined using current conference leaders, with RPI serving as the tiebreaker. Teams earning autobids are marked with an asterisk (*).
Last Four In: NC State, Arizona State, Purdue, Louisiana
First Four Out: East Carolina, Texas State, Troy, Kent State
With just one week left, every game matters. For players and fans alike, it's time to gear up—both for the final push and the postseason ahead. Whether you're cheering from the stands or representing your team's colors, make sure you're ready for the action.