The first round of the NBA playoffs is often seen as a predictable affair, but recent years have proven that's a dangerous assumption. We've witnessed lower-seeded teams like the 2023 Miami Heat, the 2024 Dallas Mavericks, and last year's Minnesota Timberwolves not only survive but thrive, making deep, unexpected runs. As the 2026 postseason tips off, the bracket may look top-heavy, but history tells us to expect the unexpected. Let's break down the underdogs with the most potential to spice up the opening round.

While the top seeds in each conference command respect, the real intrigue lies with the teams seeded fifth through tenth. The Toronto Raptors, for instance, face a tough but interesting matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Toronto swept the season series, but those wins came before the new year. Their elite defense will be tested, and their upset hopes may hinge on the health of point guard Immanuel Quickley. Without him, the offensive burden on Scottie Barnes could be too great in a potential shootout with Cleveland's star power.

On the other side of the underdog spectrum, the Houston Rockets are heavy favorites against the injury-plagued Los Angeles Lakers. With Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves sidelined, the Lakers' hopes rest almost solely on the legendary shoulders of LeBron James. While counting out LeBron is never wise, the Rockets' health and cohesion make them a formidable opponent, suggesting this "upset" would be a seismic shock.

Then there's the Atlanta Hawks, who represent the ultimate high-risk, high-reward playoff pick. If the NBA postseason were a heat challenge, the Hawks would be the final, devastating sauce—a volatile mix capable of delivering euphoric highs or brutal disappointment. Their explosive, high-variance style makes them the most dangerous wildcard in the field, a team that can beat anyone on any given night but remains an unpredictable proposition over a seven-game series. For fans and analysts alike, they are the quintessential upset alert.