Thursday afternoon brings the finale of a four-game set between the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park, with the Pirates looking to secure the series win after a 2-0 victory on Wednesday. The Nationals, sitting at 8-10, have shown some life by winning four of their last six, while the 11-7 Pirates aim to protect their strong 6-3 home record.

First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET, with Pittsburgh installed as a -157 money line favorite and the over/under set at 8.5 runs. The all-time series is tightly contested, and the teams have split their last dozen meetings, setting the stage for a compelling rubber match.

For bettors and fans looking for an edge, the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, has analyzed this matchup. The model, which was profitable on top-rated money-line picks last season, has identified a strong trend for this game.

After running its simulations, the model is leaning towards the Over on the 8.5-run total. This aligns with recent trends, as the Over has hit in six of Washington's last ten games and three of Pittsburgh's last five, suggesting the potential for some offensive fireworks to close out the series.