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It's the beginning of a new home run week, and with a cold snap hitting the league, finding the best spots for dingers and MLB player props is key today if we're going to turn a profit.
Jordan Walker's odds are as long as they've been all year in a great matchup and setting, while Jose Quintana in Coors Field is a recipe for multiple long balls tonight.
These are my favorite home run props for Monday, April 20.
I thought +540 was a great HR price on St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker last Friday. This is an insane number for a hitter with elite metrics and one of the fastest swings in all of baseball.
The cold has crept in on a small Monday slate, and getting one of this year’s best HR bats at anything better than +400 in a controlled environment is a +EV gift to start the week. Walker has also more than doubled his barrel rate this year, jumping from 11.2% to 24%.
The matchup favors him against Miami Marlins righty Max Meyer's shaky command. Per Covers projections powered by THE BAT, “Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his fly balls to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s sixth-shallowest CF fences today.”
Jose Quintana has yet to pitch at Coors Field this year, but a matchup vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers in decent hitting conditions isn’t one the veteran lefty is likely looking forward to. This could get ugly, and L.A. should see plenty of innings against a Colorado Rockies bullpen that has been punching above its weight and may be without its three best arms today.
Bettors don’t usually get elite prices at Coors, but I’ll take the best HR park on the slate when narrowing down a small card. The value leans to left-handed bats, as Quintana isn’t tough on lefties, and books tend to shade those matchups.
Kyle Tucker at +410 is the target. He’s already gone deep at Coors in this series, handles lefties well, and carries the best price among the top-tier bats in the L.A. lineup. THE BAT grades him as a Top-15 hitter in baseball.
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