Looking to add some excitement to your Friday night? The MLB slate is packed with power potential, and the home run prop market offers a thrilling way to engage with the action. After a strong week of picks, we're zeroing in on the best matchups and hitting environments to target tonight.
Our focus starts north of the border in Toronto, where the Blue Jays have a prime opportunity against a pitcher whose stats may be due for regression. Daulton Varsho, hitting in the valuable two-hole, is in the midst of a power surge with three homers in his last six games. He faces Mike Soroka, a pitcher whose current ERA significantly outpaces his expected metrics, suggesting he's been fortunate. With Soroka ranking poorly in hard-contact metrics and a Diamondbacks bullpen that struggles against lefties, Varsho at +540 presents a compelling value to kick off the night.
Meanwhile, one of the season's early home run leaders has a dream matchup. Jordan Walker, who leads the league with eight homers thanks to elite swing metrics, faces a Houston Astros squad in a vulnerable spot. With starter Peter Lambert making his season debut after a long absence—a pitcher with a history of allowing the long ball—Walker should see plenty of hittable pitches. If Lambert exits early, he'll then face an Astros bullpen that has already surrendered the second-most homers in baseball. This is a prime spot for Walker to add to his total, making his current price an attractive target for bettors.
