The Detroit Tigers received concerning news this week, but if you're ready to write off their season, you might want to hold that thought. Ace pitcher and two-time defending Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is set to undergo surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow, a procedure that will sideline him indefinitely. Manager A.J. Hinch confirmed the news on Monday, noting Skubal will "miss some time."
On the surface, losing a pitcher of Skubal's caliber is a massive blow. Over the past two seasons, he dominated the American League with a combined 31-10 record and a sparkling 2.30 ERA, earning back-to-back Cy Young Awards. This year, he was off to another strong start at 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA. But here's where the story takes an unexpected turn.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, suggests the Tigers shouldn't panic. In fact, the model projects minimal impact on Detroit's season outlook. Before the injury, the Tigers were projected to win 85.2 games. With Skubal expected to return by mid-July—a typical recovery timeline for this procedure—that number drops to just 84.7 wins. That's a difference of only half a game.
Currently sitting at 18-17 and tied with the Cleveland Guardians for first place in the AL Central, the Tigers are still very much in the hunt. The model gives Detroit a 48.3% chance to win the division, making them a solid value at +160 odds on FanDuel (implied odds of 38.5%). Their chances of reaching the playoffs, winning the ALCS, or capturing the World Series also remain largely unchanged, according to the simulations.
Oddsmakers have responded differently to the news. While both DraftKings and FanDuel have removed Skubal from the Cy Young odds board, their views on Detroit's championship hopes diverge. DraftKings kept the Tigers at +1800 to win the World Series, unchanged from before the injury. FanDuel, meanwhile, offers a more generous +2700 for the Tigers to lift the Commissioner's Trophy. They also list Detroit as the +160 favorite to win the AL Central, slightly ahead of Cleveland at +175.
For now, the Tigers will pivot to a bullpen game for Monday's matchup against the Boston Red Sox, with lefty Tyler Holton (0-1, 5.27 ERA) serving as the opener. It's not the ideal scenario, but if the model is right, Detroit's season is far from over. Sometimes, depth and resilience matter more than a single star—even one as bright as Skubal.