When it comes to projecting success for the 2026 season, the smartest starting point is looking at what’s left from the 2025 squad. It's not just about how many players return—it's about how much production comes back with them. That’s a subtle but crucial distinction, and it's the foundation of a metric developed by Bill Connelly, the creator of both Rock M Nation and the SP+ rating system.

Connelly’s "returning production" formula measures the statistical weight of what’s coming back, not just the names on the roster. While his full breakdowns are behind a paywall, they’re well worth the investment. Historically, teams that return roughly 80% of their production see a 5-6 point jump in SP+. To put that in perspective, three years ago we noted that a similar bump for Missouri—moving from a 9.4 SP+ rating in 2022 to around 14.4 or 15.4 in 2023—would be significant. The Tigers ended up exceeding even that optimistic projection, finishing the 2023 season with a 19.3 rating after returning 78% of their prior year’s production. That’s nearly a full 10-point leap, a testament to the power of continuity.

Looking ahead to 2026, the landscape is shifting. The COVID-era bonus-year players are almost entirely gone, but ongoing eligibility litigation and the potential "5 to play 5" rule mean we’re still far from a "new normal." Add in the ever-active transfer portal, and roster management looks vastly different than it did just five years ago. While these factors might nudge Connelly’s returning production numbers slightly off, his formula remains the gold standard for measuring what matters most in the current college football climate.

So where does Missouri stand? As a reference point, at this time last year, the 2025 Tigers checked in at 60% overall returning production (51st nationally), with just 44% on offense (100th) and 58% on defense (68th). For the second straight year, Eli Drinkwitz’s squad won’t be anywhere near the top of the returning production charts. That means the 2026 outlook will depend heavily on how well the Tigers can reload—and whether the production that does come back can punch above its weight.