NFL and college football fans have long pegged Arch Manning as a future No. 1 overall draft pick, but ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. isn't sold on the hype. The legendary draft analyst, known for his annual hot takes on top prospects, recently shared a different perspective on the Texas Longhorns quarterback.

Manning's football bloodline—with uncles Peyton and Eli Manning both Super Bowl champions—makes him one of the most talked-about players in the sport. But Kiper isn't convinced that name alone will translate to the top spot in the NFL Draft.

On the "First Draft Podcast," Kiper pointed to Oregon quarterback Dante Moore as a potential challenger. Moore surprised many by returning to college instead of entering the 2026 draft, where he was projected as a top-five pick. "He could be the guy that challenges," Kiper said. "If you go to the Penn State game and just watch that game in its entirety, you'd be hard pressed on a quarterback you like better."

While Manning has shown impressive mobility and pocket presence—skills that set him apart from his pocket-passing uncles—Kiper believes the competition is fierce. The 2027 draft class is shaping up to be deep at quarterback, with names like Julian Sayin, Sam Leavitt, and LaNorris Sellers also in the mix.

For context, the 2026 draft saw just three quarterbacks selected in the first three rounds, with Indiana's Fernando Mendoza being the only first-round pick. That reality underscores how unpredictable the jump from college to the pros can be.

Manning's upcoming season with the Longhorns will be under a microscope. If he delivers the kind of performances that made him a household name, Kiper may have to reconsider. But for now, the draft guru is betting on another signal-caller to steal the spotlight.